Yield, production increases expected from USDA

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MarketsFarm — Market expectations ahead of a crop production report due out Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are for increases in U.S. soybean and corn yields.

“I get the sense the trade is looking for the USDA to up corn yields by 1.9 bushels per acre, to 180.4 bu./ac., while soy yields are to go up 1.5 bu./ac., to 51.3 bu/ac,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said.

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Reports put the highest yield forecast for soybeans at 54 bu./ac. and 184 for corn.

“So far trade sentiment is big crop getting bigger,” said Jubinville.

That should bring the August estimate for soybean production in 2020 to about 4.24 billion bushels, and corn production to come in at 15.15 billion bushels, according to Jubinville.

In turn, the respective carryovers are to increase by similar amounts — for soybeans, from 395 million bushels in the July report, to 495 million come Wednesday. The corn carryover should increase from July’s 2.65 billion bushels to about 2.8 billion in Wednesday’s report.

Dry conditions across the U.S. Midwest had been something of a wildcard, especially through western Iowa. However, Jubinville said that should be offset by improved conditions elsewhere in the region.

The Midwest is reported to have received between 0.4 and four inches of precipitation over the weekend, which helped to alleviate some of those dry conditions.

Along with its production estimate, USDA will also release its official read on prevent-plant acres in 2020, which the trade will be following closely, according to Jubinville.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

Table: Grain trade’s latest yield expectations for U.S. crops, in bushels per acre.

Crop.            .
2019-20.    .USDA’s July.    .Average trade
yieldsestimatespredictions
Soybeans47.449.851.2
Corn167.4178.5180.5
Wheat51.749.750.0

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Glen Hallick - MarketsFarm

Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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