Glacier FarmMedia — There was very little change in the April supply and demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture on April 9, with the report essentially being a carbon copy of the March estimates.
“It didn’t do much at all for the market reaction. Some slight adjustments, but overall a nothing burger,” said John Weyer, vice-president of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services in Chicago, Ill.
“To steal a quote from my office manager, they released the report and didn’t tell anyone,” Weyer quipped.
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Few changes in U.S. crops
Among the trio of main commodities, there were no changes to U.S. production of soybeans, corn and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year.
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As for 2025-26 U.S. exports and ending stocks, the only differences compared to the USDA’s March report were that soybean exports were trimmed to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.58 billion, and the wheat carryover was bumped up to 938 million bushels from 931 million.
Global adjustments
However, Walsh said the change in global ending stocks for wheat did see a five to six cent drop in the North American futures. The carryout rose to 283.12 million tonnes in the April report from 276.96 million last month.
As well, world wheat production for 2025-26 was upped to 844.15 million tonnes, based on increased output for Argentina, the European Union and Russia.
For corn, the USDA kept Argentina and Brazil at 52 million and 132 million tonnes, respectively. Also with soybeans, with Argentina at 48 million tonnes and Brazil held at 180 million.
Crude oil
With such a mundane report, Walsh said crude oil will continue to guide the commodity futures over the next 30 days.
“That’s the driver of the bus right now,” Walsh said.
While recent talk of a ceasefire between U.S. and Israel with Iran generated sharp declines in crude oil and the agricultural commodities, fears of the war escalating pushed prices higher on April 9.
