Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – Statistics Canada’s production estimates in its principal field crops report issued Aug. 28, came in better than expected according to MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville.
While Jubinville thought StatCan might peg the 2024/25 canola crop at around 20 million tonnes, the federal agency placed their call at 19.50 million, while a poll by Reuters expected 19.20 million.
“They are closer to reality than what I thought they would be,” Jubinville stated, but noted StatCan’s satellite imagery used for the report is still from about five weeks ago.
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Even with that, the analyst was somewhat surprised at the maps included in the StatCan report highlighted lower amounts of vegetative growth.
“Measurements of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index produced using satellite data indicate that overall plant health in the Prairie provinces ranged from much lower than normal to similar to normal at the end of July, indicating the possibility of yields ranging from much lower than normal to similar to normal,” StatCan commented in its report.
Jubinville said the canola on the Prairies looked to be very good in June and thought at that time a harvest of 20 million tonnes or more might have been possible. However, a period of hot, dry weather across the region cut into the oilseed’s yield potential, as well as that for several other crops.
“I think Statistics Canada is heading in the right direction,” he commented, noting that the agency’s model-based reports in August and September have often been met with a good amount of skepticism from the trade.
Besides generating fresh numbers for 2024/25, StatCan also revised its data for 2023/24 and 2022/23. Canola output for last year was increased to 19.19 million tonnes from 18.33 million, and that for 2022/23 is now 18.85 million.
As for all wheat, StatCan estimated the incoming harvest at 34.37 million tonnes, while the call from the Reuters poll was 35.13 million. Previously, the forecast for wheat this year was at 34.36 million tonnes, and 31.95 million for 2023/24. Of the latter, StatCan pushed it up by one million tonnes. Meanwhile all wheat for 2022/23 was increased to 34.81 million tonnes from 34.34 million tonnes.
Come Sept. 9, StatCan will release its grain stocks report as of July 31 followed by its updated principal field crop report on Sept. 16. Then on Dec. 5 it will publish its farm-survey production report.
