MarketsFarm — In its May supply and demand report, the International Grain Council (IGC) has forecast lower global production of wheat and corn in 2022-23, while soybeans are expected to rise.
The IGC, in its latest report Thursday, lowered its call on total world grain production to 2.251 billion tonnes. That’s down by a little more than one per cent from the council’s April report. Total global ending stocks are to ease back to 579.6 million tonnes, dipping 0.26 per cent from last month.
The council cited reduced harvests of wheat, corn and sorghum for the overall step back in production. Its May report noted production declines in Argentina, India, and the United States as offsetting increases in Australia and Russia.
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Wheat
The May report placed 2022-23 world wheat production at 769 million tonnes, slipping 1.4 per cent from the previous month. The carryover for wheat was 270.9 million tonnes, falling 2.2 per cent from April.
The IGC forecast production increases for Australia, Canada and Russia, but declines elsewhere brought down the overall number. In particular, Ukraine’s output was slashed from 33 million tonnes in 2021-22 to 19.4 million in 2022/23 because of the ongoing Russian invasion.
Since the April report, the IGC has also cut U.S. 2022-23 production by 6.2 per cent at 46.8 million tonnes and India’s harvest was reduced 5.7 per cent at 105 million.
Corn, soy
The IGC trimmed global corn production for 2022-23 to 1.184 billion tonnes, a dip of 1.1 per cent from last month. At 269.1 million tonnes, the corn carryout was increased 1.5 per cent.
Smaller 2022-23 harvests forecast in Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine and the U.S. were responsible for reduction, which was partially offset by an increase in Brazil. Of note, the IGC projected Ukraine to tumble from 42.1 million tonnes in 2021-22 down to 18.6 million.
Soybean production was bumped up 1.3 per cent at 387.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks expanding 8.1 per cent at 58.4 million tonnes. The IGC sees increases for China and the U.S. as countering expected decreases in Ukraine and Paraguay.
Table: International Grains Council outlooks for world grain production and ending stocks for 2022-23, in millions of tonnes, with 2021-22 numbers and IGC’s April 2022 numbers for comparison.
| Production | |||
| 2021-22. . | April 2022. . | May 2022 | |
| Total | 2,290.7 | 2,274.7 | 2,251.0 |
| Wheat | 781.2 | 779.9 | 769.0 |
| Corn | 1,213.8 | 1,197.2 | 1,183.8 |
| Soybeans | 332.2 | 365.1 | 368.0 |
| Stocks | |||
| 2021-22 | April 2022 | May 2022 | |
| Total | 607.3 | 581.1 | 579.6 |
| Wheat | 282.1 | 276.9 | 270.9 |
| Corn | 285.2 | 265.1 | 269.1 |
| Soybeans | 45.4 | 54.0 | 58.4 |
