Have the wheat bear markets run their course?

Have the wheat bear markets run their course?

It looks like the worst of the bear market is over; additional moderate losses can’t be ruled out, but deep declines are unlikely

Wheat futures keep trying to rally. Time after time, the rallies fail. The markets seem stuck in low-level ruts.

Photo: Dave Bedard

Wheat heading, world flush with supply

Weather across the U.S. will have a larger influence on prices through the growing season

Below average temperatures in early June delayed Ontario corn and soybean development. Precipitation levels were considered average. Warmer temperatures were needed to advance crop development and enhance yield potential.





Photo: iStock

Chinese influence is alternating trade flows for wheat

Unlike the U.S., China has not imposed tariffs on developing countries in the global south, cementing its position as the trade leader for these countries

China has a strategic long term plan when it comes to the trade war. The top 20 developing countries in the world are in the global south. This includes the Middle East, North Africa, Asia Pacific and sub-Sahara Africa. Last year, China announced zero tariffs on these developing countries in the global south which cemented its position as the trade leader for these countries. You guessed it, these regions are all major wheat importers and with the Chinese influence, they are not looking at the U.S. any longer for food security.




To wage tariff uncertainty, sell regularly

To wage tariff uncertainty, sell regularly

Selling in regular increments throughout the production year will achieve a higher overall price

Tariffs alternate trade flows and are inflationary by nature for the country implementing the tariffs. The long-term consequences of Trump’s proposed tariffs and retaliatory responses are difficult to forecast. This reinforces the strategy for selling regular increments of production throughout the crop year to achieve a higher overall average price.