Ontario farmers may benefit from a warmer spring in 2018 – if the weather is dry enough, says a WeatherFarm-DTN The Progressive Farmer spring forecast.
Why it matters: Planting early usually means higher yields and sets the tone for the growing season.
Jim Block, chief meteorological officer with DTN, says a weak La Nina is the main system influence on eastern Canada, but it will fade as the spring goes on.
“Eastern Canada, especially southwestern Ontario, is going to continue to be milder than average and will be wetter than average,” says Block. “There will be continued cold spells, but in general it will be warmer and slowly drier. There have been pretty wet conditions already in February, but the wetness will slowly fade away as we move April and into May.”
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Western Canada will not be quite so lucky as it will follow the trends that have shown up there in late winter. Temperatures will remain below normal and dry, although as the La Nina fades it should mean more precipitation.
However, Bryce Anderson, DTN The Progressive Farmer senior agriculture meteorologist, says the rain that will come in this spring in Western Canada won’t make up for the deficit of subsoil moisture from a dry summer of 2017 and winter.
In Ontario, however the growing conditions are good, with excellent subsoil moisture. Winter precipitation has been average. Later in the winter, it would usually be in the form of snow, says Block, but this year over the late winter, there has been rain.
“Temperatures though in a typical La Nina year rebound fairly rapidly. We have a high degree of confidence that Ontario will stay warm and there will probably be an early start to the planting season there.”
Strong rains could delay that early start to planting, but the combination of warmth and lots of subsoil moisture should get plants off to a good start.
Block says the weak La Nina pattern makes it more difficult to be as confident in the spring forecast, as he might be with a strong weather pattern.
“We’d have higher confidence if we were in a strong El Nino or La Nina,” he says. Block expects no major weather systems over 2018, with no indication of an El Nino pattern. He says he could see a slide back into another weaker La Nina, which generally means more rainfall in eastern North America. El Nino patterns are warming and cooling events in the eastern Pacific Ocean which affect the severity of weather patterns in parts of the world, including North America. La Nina is the cooling phase of an El Nino pattern.
