MarketsFarm – With some parts of Western Canada experiencing delayed seeding due to wet weather, many analysts believe the conditions have caused a ripple effect on acreage totals for the 2022-23 marketing year.
Statistics Canada (StatCan) will release its second survey-based acreage report for the 2022-23 marketing year on July 5. Traders and analysts are paying close attention to the report to see if wet weather in the eastern Prairies and dryness in the west had significant effects on estimates. If most of their projections hold true, there will be some change to the numbers compared to StatCan’s March 2022 acreage report.
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However, analysts are wide-ranging in their acreage outlooks for canola. With many canola-growing areas waterlogged, analysts’ estimates ranged from 20.2 million to 22.7 million acres, compared to StatCan’s March estimate of 20.897 million. MarketsFarm expert Bruce Burnett, whose own estimate fell on the lower end at 20.25 million, attributes the decline due to wet weather.
“Canola area is down by 3.1 per cent (in my estimates) due to planting issues in the eastern Prairies. This is part of a two million acre loss in sown area,” he said. “Look out for higher than normal abandonment this year in the eastern Prairies due to flooding in already sown areas.”
However, Neil Townsend of Farmlink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg believes high commodity prices will actually bring canola’s acreage total to 22.7 million.
“There were pretty strong prices (for canola) throughout the planting season for farmers that were attractive,” he said.
The wet weather seems to have taken a hit on analysts’ acreage estimates for all wheat. While StatCan estimated 25.031 million acres in March, analysts’ projections this time around range from 23.7 million to 25.4 million.
While independent Winnipeg-based trader Jerry Klassen believes durum acreage totals will be strong at 6.2 million, he expected spring wheat acres would likely end up below earlier expectations.
“Between that survey (in March) and the survey now, you’re going to find there were 100,000 acres, maybe more, that wasn’t seeded due to extreme wet conditions,” he said. “I think the trade is comfortable with StatCan’s acreage number from March, but I’m a little bit lower because there’s going to be acreage that is unseeded in eastern Saskatchewan and in Manitoba.”
“Obviously, there’s going to be an above average number of acres unseeded. We always have one or two per cent to go unseeded for various reasons usually. It may be a little bit higher this year because of all the wet acres in the western Prairies. It may be three or four per cent,” said Ken Ball, broker for PI Financial in Winnipeg, who estimated 24.6 million acres for all wheat.
Barley and oats may become the beneficiaries of farmers switching away from canola and wheat due to late seeding. Analysts’ estimates for barley range from 7.5 million to eight million acres, compared to StatCan’s March estimate of 7.491 million. Oat acres appear to remain steady, with estimates from 3.8 to four million, in line with StatCan’s previous projection of 3.992 million.
“There may have been some acreage shuffling, but how much of that was wholesale movement into one or two crops out of others, or was it more sort of jockeying around the margins a little bit? It’s a little bit hard to tell,” said Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research. “There may be quote-unquote winners and losers, but maybe it’s a little bit hard to know how it’s shook out.”
Burnett warned to take the upcoming StatCan acreage report with a grain of salt.
“There will be some uncertainty in the Statistics Canada figures as the survey was done as sowing was not yet complete. There could be some additional acreage changes in the fall reports,” he said.
The following numbers below are a recap of pre-report expectations. Statistics Canada’s March 2022 principal field crop estimates are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in million acres.
CROP PROJECTIONS 2022/23 2021/22
Barley 7.500 – 8.000 7.491 8.296
Canola 20.200 – 22.700 20.897 22.479
Flax 0.600 – 0.900 0.867 1.027
Lentils 4.000 – 4.500 4.486 4.303
Oats 3.800 – 4.000 3.992 3.423
Peas 3.250 – 3.400 3.551 3.820
All Wheat* 23.700 – 25.400 25.031 23.360
Durum 5.500 – 6.200 6.224 5.530
*All wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill
