Glacier FarmMedia -– With Brazil having faced opposing weather extremes, there’s little surprise the United States Department of Agriculture attaché cut their soybean production estimate for 2023/24. The Brasilia desk reduced its call from a record 162 million tonnes to 158.5 million in its latest report.
The official USDA estimate was trimmed from 163 million tonnes in November to 161 million in December. The department is set to issue its January supply and demand estimates on Jan. 12, and it remains to be seen if any data from its Brazil attaché could be incorporated into the report.
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Several private consultancies have dropped their Brazil soybean projections as well, to the low to mid 150 million-tonne range. Among those were Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. who recently lopped off two million tonnes from his Brazil projection, now at 151 million.
The root cause for the reduction in projected soybean output in Brazil were the delays in getting the crop into the ground. Very heavy rains in the south of the country, such as in Rio Grande do Sul for example, prevented farmers from getting onto their fields in a timely manner. Then extremely dry conditions in central and northern Brazil also kept producers at bay, with any sown crops lacking sufficient soil moisture. Several states were caught up in this drought, including Mato Grasso, Mato Grasso do Sul, Maranhao, and Tocantis.
Of the dry states, they received rain over the last few weeks, greatly helping their crops. Meanwhile, Parana has been one of the few states that’s experienced favourable growing conditions.
Despite the planting difficulties, Brazil still saw the area sown expand from 2022/23. The attaché estimated the previous crop at 44 million hectares and 45.2 million for this year. The USDA was a pinch higher for both, 44.3 million hectares in 2022/23 and 45.6 million in 2023/24.
The Brasilia desk projected a slight decline in Brazil’s soybean exports for 2023/24, with expectations of 100 million tonnes, versus the 102 million the previous year. The USDA projected 102 million tonnes last year and 101 million for this year.
The USDA and its attaché agreed the domestic crush is to be 55.5 million tonnes in 2023/24.
Both were not far off on their calls for total domestic consumption, with the USDA at 59.45 million tonnes for 2023/24 compared to 53.7 million a year ago. The Brasilia desk predicted 59.30 million for this year, up from 56.9 million in 2022/23.
However, the two are very far apart when it came to Brazil’s ending stocks. The USDA placed them at 3.48 million tonnes, up from 2.48 million in 2022/23. Meanwhile its attaché pegged them at only 683,000, dropping from 1.08 million the year before. The latter cited increased use of soybeans for biofuel, along with growing international demand.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
