Tightening canola ending stocks for 2024/25: AAFC

Glacier FarmMedia –– Canadian canola ending stocks will likely be tighter by the close of the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year, while the wheat carryout should rise, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released March 19.

Factoring updated acreage estimates from Statistics Canada, AAFC lowered their call for Canadian canola production in 2024/25 to 18.100 million tonnes, from 18.365 million in February. That compares with 18.328 million tonnes in the current 2023/24 marketing year. Projected exports were left unchanged at 7.000 million tonnes for 2023/24 and at 7.700 million in the new crop year. With only minor revisions to the domestic usage projections, canola ending stocks are now forecast to tighten to 1.650 million tonnes for 2024/25, from a projected 2.000 million in 2023/24.

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For wheat, total production was estimated at 34.593 million tonnes by the government agency. That was up by 667,000 tonnes from the February estimate and well above the 31.954 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Canadian wheat ending stocks are forecast to rise to 4.400 million tonnes by the end of July 2025, which would be up by 200,000 tonnes from the February estimate and compares with the projected 2023/24 wheat carryout of 3.550 million tonnes.

AAFC March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand (in million metric tonnes):

Grains and oilseeds
	Production			Exports
	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24
	Mar	Feb		Mar	Feb
All wheat	34.593	33.926	31.954	24.600	24.350	23.450
Durum	5.655	5.435	4.045	4.500	4.350	3.200
Barley	9.496	9.280	8.896	2.750	2.750	2.750
Corn	14.929	14.310	15.076	1.650	1.650	1.850
Oats	3.510	3.705	2.636	2.450	2.550	2.450
Canola	18.100	18.365	18.328	7.700	7.700	7.000
Flaxseed	0.260	0.250	0.273	0.250	0.250	0.250
Soybeans	6.900	6.950	6.981	4.950	4.950	4.900
TOTAL	88.254	87.296	84.654	44.533	44.383	42.847

	Domestic Usage			Ending Stocks
	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24
	Mar	Feb		Mar	Feb
All wheat	9.268	9.051	8.591	4.400	4.200	3.550
Durum	0.880	0.860	0.829	0.750	0.700	0.450
Barley	6.476	6.510	5.935	1.300	1.050	1.000
Corn	15.129	14.810	15.653	2.200	1.900	1.900
Oats	1.080	1.025	1.086	0.400	0.550	0.400
Canola	10.850	10.815	11.084	1.650	1.950	2.000
Flaxseed	0.090	0.095	0.132	0.050	0.035	0.120
Soybeans	2.446	2.450	2.482	0.375	0.421	0.421
TOTAL	45.628	45.090	45.312	10.440	10.171	9.461

Pulse and Special Crops
	Production			Exports
	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24
	Mar	Feb		Mar	Feb
Dry peas	3.000	3.100	2.609	2.400	2.300	2.400
Lentils	2.130	2.200	1.671	1.800	1.800	1.600
Dry beans	0.355	0.330	0.339	0.335	0.335	0.390
Chickpeas	0.225	0.210	0.142	0.135	0.135	0.135
Mustard	0.180	0.170	0.171	0.110	0.110	0.110
Canaryseed	0.155	0.145	0.112	0.135	0.135	0.125
Sunflower	0.073	0.078	0.092	0.035	0.035	0.025
TOTAL	6.118	6.233	5.137	4.950	4.850	4.785

	Domestic Usage			Ending Stocks
	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24	2024/25	2024/25	2023/24
	Mar	Feb		Mar	Feb
Dry peas	0.600	0.700	0.576	0.240	0.440	0.210
Lentils	0.265	0.265	0.213	0.240	0.310	0.100
Dry beans	0.075	0.075	0.074	0.050	0.025	0.030
Chickpeas	0.075	0.075	0.075	0.065	0.050	0.005
Mustard	0.042	0.042	0.043	0.100	0.090	0.065
Canaryseed	0.010	0.010	0.014	0.040	0.030	0.030
Sunflower	0.068	0.068	0.068	0.185	0.190	0.180
TOTAL	1.135	1.235	1.064	0.920	1.135	0.620