MarketsFarm — Market participants and producers will be looking to Statistics Canada’s principal field crop report, due out Thursday, for clarity regarding 2020 crop yields.
“We’re looking to see how severely the heat damaged the crop, and how yield estimates were tempered later in the growing season,” said Jerry Klassen, an analyst in Winnipeg.
Klassen said it’s “difficult to say how things will pan out,” as fall temperatures differed greatly across Western Canada.
“The trade is really looking forward to these numbers to see where things ended up.”
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Market participants expect canola production to be lower from previous estimates, at 18.8 million and 19.5 million tonnes.
Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm expected canola production to be revised downward from StatsCan’s previous estimate of 19.3 million tonnes, due to provincial reports in Alberta and Saskatchewan indicating lower yields.
“I’m expecting that to be reflected in this report,” remarked Jubinville.
Jubinville also mentioned the earlier StatsCan production reports had been based on satellite imagery, while this one will be based on farmer surveys.
“It’ll be an interesting dichotomy of what was expected based on satellite imagery, versus boots on the ground,” he explained.
StatsCan’s report “is going to be a market mover for a lot of crops,” Klassen said.
“We’ll have an idea of what farmers are going to be selling here later in the crop year, and what they’ll be holding on to as well.”
The report is also expected to influence acreage decisions for spring seeding.
— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
Table: Market participants’ forecasts of Canadian 2020-21 crop production, plus StatsCan’s September estimates and 2019-20 production, in millions of metric tonnes.
| Pre-report trade | September, | ||
| estimates, 2020-21. . | 2020-21 | 2019-20 | |
| Durum | 4.977 – 6.796 | 6.134 | 4.977 |
| All wheat. . | 32.348 – 35.321 | 34.145 | 32.348 |
| Oats | 4.406 – 4.807 | 4.503 | 4.237 |
| Barley | 10.000 – 10.700 | 10.255 | 10.383 |
| Canola | 19.880 – 20.500 | 19.393 | 19.447 |
| Peas | 4.340 – 4.700 | 4.360 | 4.237 |
| Lentils | 2.535 – 3.000 | 3.065 | 2.242 |
