StatsCan confirms canola stocks tightening

Wheat stocks also down from previous year-end

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MarketsFarm — Solid demand from exporters and domestic crushers continues to eat rapidly through Canada’s canola stocks, which as of Dec. 31 were down nearly 24 per cent from the same date a year earlier, according to new data released Friday from Statistics Canada.

The government agency pegged total canola stocks in the country as of Dec. 31 at 12.14 million tonnes, down from 15.91 million on Dec. 31, 2019, and from the five-year average of 14.4 million. Stocks were the tightest since 2012.

Canada grew 18.72 million tonnes of canola in 2020-21, down about 900,000 from the previous year. However, exports through the first 26 weeks of the crop year, at 6.2 million tonnes, are well above the 4.58 million moved by the end of January in 2019-20, according to Canadian Grain Commission data.

Domestic usage has also moved slightly ahead of the year ago pace, at 5.39 million tonnes.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is currently forecasting canola ending stocks of 1.2 million tonnes by July 31, 2021, which would be down from 3.13 million the previous year. However, given the current usage pace, stocks could be even tighter and the futures market has trended higher in an effort to ration some of the demand.

Canadian wheat stocks as of Dec. 31, at 24.85 million tonnes, were down by a million tonnes from the previous year, but slightly above the five-year average of 24.18 million.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s stocks report for the period ended Dec. 31, 2020, in millions of metric tonnes.

Total stocks at Total stocks at Five-year avg.,
Dec. 31, 2020.     . Dec. 31, 2019.       . 2015-19
Barley 5.680 5.954 5.816
Canola 12.140 15.907 14.403
Flaxseed 0.377 0.387 0.532
Oats 2.682 2.671 2.595
All wheat.    . 24.845 25.825 24.178
Durum 4.763 4.661 5.066
Lentils 1.848 2.410 1.946
Peas 2.565 2.660 2.622

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