MarketsFarm — There should be changes to 2022-23 Argentina corn and wheat endings stocks, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) attaché in Buenos Aires.
The Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report cited a sharp increase in the carryover for corn and a smaller bump up when it came to wheat. The effects of Argentina’s drought were at the root of the alterations.
To that end, the attaché noted, if rains come in February and March then both crops could see the harmful effects of the drought reduced to some small measure. Also, the national government stated export certificates for corn and wheat could be rolled back for 180 days to lessen the pressure off of the domestic market, should supplies of either crop become tight. With federal elections set for October, it’s believed many farmers could hold off on selling their corn and wheat if a government more palatable to them can be elected.
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Nevertheless, the attaché projected 2022-23 corn ending stocks at 3.49 million tonnes, far higher than USDA’s call of 1.49 million. This is despite the attaché dropping production to 45 million tonnes, from the department’s 52 million. However, since the report was prepared, USDA lowered its projection on Argentine corn production to 47 million tonnes.
The attaché forecast corn exports for the marketing year to come in at 32.2 million tonnes, rather than the USDA’s estimate of 38 million.
As for wheat, the attaché pegged Argentina’s beginning stocks for 2022-23 at 1.93 million tonnes, compared to USDA’s call of 2.35 million. While the attaché kept production at 12.5 million tonnes, total supply was trimmed to 14.43 million.
Argentina’s wheat exports for 2022-23 are expected to decline, according to the attaché, from the department’s expectation of 7.5 million tonnes down to 6.2 million. The attaché set the carryout at 1.73 million tonnes versus the 1.21 million in USDA’s forecast.
The attaché also made some changes to Argentina’s 2022-23 barley crop, with ending stocks estimated at 453,000 tonnes, which would be slightly lower than the 469,000 the USDA forecast.
It’s a similar story for 2022-23 sorghum ending stocks, with the attaché pegging them at 247,000 tonnes versus USDA’s 297,000.
On the world stage, Argentina ranks fifth in world corn production, 14th overall in wheat, eighth for barley at 4.2 million tonnes and seventh for sorghum at 3.5 million, according to USDA’s February supply and demand estimates.
