Update: A low tracking through central prairies is a little weaker than expected. This will result in less precipitation with showers, thundershowers, and storms being less widespread. Another issue is the smoke which can be difficult to predict. Areas with smoke we see cooler than expected daytime highs.
An upper ridge that brought plenty of heat, humidity, and some thunderstorms to the southern and central prairies appeared to be breaking down. In its place will be a large sprawling area of surface high pressure. This high will have its origins in the sub-arctic but with the summertime heat in place and the strong midsummer sunshine, temperatures will not cool down too much. What we will see a reduction in the humidity which should make for nice comfortable conditions. As the high drops southwards on Thursday and Friday, expect to see partly cloudy skies along with a few scattered thundershowers, and depending on the time of day, some scattered thunderstorms.
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Over the weekend the high will settle across the prairies bringing with it plenty of sunshine, light winds, and daytime highs mostly in the low to maybe mid-twenties. To end off July and to start August, the weather models are showing the high drifting off to the east allowing for an area of low pressure to slide across the central prairies bringing with it clouds, thundershowers, and the possibility of some severe thunderstorms. Areas to the south of this low will see a continuation of warm temperatures while those to the north we cooler conditions.
Alberta
As the sub-arctic high pushes southward, northern regions will see unsettled conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. With the clouds and showers, expect cool temperatures with daytime highs around the 20 C mark. These unsettled conditions will continue to drop southwards ahead of the high with central regions seeing clouds, showers, and thundershowers on Thursday into Friday, and southern regions seeing the unsettled weather on Friday.
The weekend looks to be sunny and dry with daytime highs ranging from around 20 C in the north to pushing close to 30 C in the far south. By late in the day Sunday, the weather models are predicting an area of low pressure to spin up over north-central regions. This low will mainly impact the northern half of the province bringing clouds, showers, and thundershowers. Precipitation from this low looks to remain in the northern half of the province with southern regions continuing to be warm and dry. The low looks like it will move east of the province by late Monday bringing a return of dry weather to the north along with a warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Saskatchewan
This region looks to see a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday and Thursday as the sub-arctic high drops southwards behind a departing area of low pressure. There will likely be some showers and thundershowers as well, but they look to be widespread. Temperatures appear to be cool in the north and warm in the far south to start off this forecast period. Expect daytime highs in the north to struggle to make it to 20 C while the far south will see highs in the mid to upper twenties. Temperatures in the south will cool into the low twenties by Friday.
Over the weekend it looks like nearly perfect summer weather with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and daytime highs in the low to mid-twenties. The low forecasted to spin up over Alberta late on Sunday will bring increase clouds overnight Sunday with showers and thundershowers becoming widespread overnight and into Monday. As the low drifts through central and northern regions on Monday areas to the north of low will be cool, cloudy, with widespread showers. Southern regions will see clearing skies along with seasonable temperatures. The low should be out of the province by late Tuesday or early Wednesday bringing a return of nice summer weather.
Manitoba
Central and northern regions will see another day or two of unsettled weather as an area of low pressure slowly moves through the region before finally departing by Friday. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms will dominate these regions during this period with temperatures working hard to make it to 20 C, depending on any sunshine that breaks through. Further south, it doesn’t look like there will be much in the way of thunderstorms, but with the heat and humidity they can be ruled out. Expect the heat to last until Thursday before the departing low drags a cold front though dropping daytime highs in this region back down into the low twenties.
The weekend appears pleasant with sunshine, light winds, and daytime highs in the low to mid-twenties. The nice weather looks like it will continue into Monday before the western low pushes in on Tuesday. The southerly flow ahead of the low will likely push daytime highs on Monday into the upper twenties and maybe even the low thirties. The low will then track through central and northern regions on Tuesday and Wednesday bring clouds and showers to these regions along with cooler temperatures. Southern regions have a good chance of seeing thunderstorms late on Monday and Tuesday as the low pushes into the region. It looks like the unsettled weather will clear out by late Wednesday setting the stage for nice seasonable summer weather to move back in.
