For the week ending July 4, there were no feeder cattle sales in Western Canada due to holidays on July 1 and July 4. Major auction markets in the U.S. were also closed or had limited numbers on offer. Prices quoted from south of the border were steady to $4 higher on average but the market was hard to define.
From a seasonal perspective, the feeder market trades sideways through July before marginally increasing in August. The market tends to stagnate during September and then grinds lower in October. Prices for calves tend to make seasonal lows during October or early November. Cattle feeders are expecting the same type of price behaviour in the summer of 2025. I always advise cow-calf producers to avoid selling calves in October because this is usually the lowest price in the fall.
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For the week ending July 4, Alberta packers were buying fed cattle in the range of $293-$295/cwt fob feedlot in the Lethbridge area. Values are steady to $2/cwt lower than seven days earlier. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, cattle on feed 150 days or more as of June 1 were 359,177 head, up 2.9 per cent or 9,957 head or from the June 1, 2024, number of 349,220.
In the U.S., cattle on feed 150 days or more as of June 1 were 3.013 million head, up 253,000 head from 12 months earlier. The fed cattle market is expected to grind lower over the next month which will weigh feeder cattle prices.
During the last week of June, 1050-pound steers in central Saskatchewan were valued $390/cwt in central Saskatchewan for early September delivery. For August and September delivery, 1,000 pound steers have been trading in the range of $395-$400/cwt in central Alberta.
The break-even fed cattle price for these steers in January 2026 is $330/cwt. This includes all costs such as feed, yardage, processing etc. The break-even for feed and interest costs only is in the range of $317-$320/cwt. It’s important to note that the February 2026 live cattle futures are reflecting an Alberta fed cattle price of $286/cwt. These cattle are severely under water.
The margin structure does not look much different for calves. In central and southern Alberta, higher quality calves weighing 550 pounds have been trading around $585 for October and November delivery. The break-even on these calves when finished for August and September 2026 is around $315/cwt. The August 2026 live cattle futures are reflecting an Alberta fed cattle price of only $270/cwt. Interest charges have added another layer of costs.
Past history tells us that feedlot operators need to endure one full round of feeding with negative margins before there is a serious downward adjustment on the feeder market. Therefore, it’s important that cattle producers to sell calves and yearlings earlier, rather than later.
