Glacier FarmMedia – There were strong gains for canola on the Intercontinental Exchange on Dec. 27, as trading resumed after being closed for Christmas and Boxing Day. However, the gain will likely not be the prelude to a major upswing in the oilseed’s prices. Rather, canola is likely to pull back once trading gets back into full swing after the New Year, according to analyst Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm.
“There’s nothing to push canola up a lot in the New Year,” he commented, but acknowledged global oilseed stocks were tight.
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Burnett predicated his outlook on the sheer size of the forthcoming soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina. Although Brazil is increasingly unlikely to harvest a soybean crop of more than 160 million tonnes, several consultancies and analysts firmly believe it will exceed 150 million tonnes.
To Burnett, the more significant story is the soybean harvest that’s to come off fields in Argentina when March rolls around. In 2022/23, the country gleaned a drought-stricken soybean crop of 25 million tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
“They’re to produce a normal crop of 45 million to 50 million tonnes,” he said of the forthcoming harvest, noting that will provide ample supplies to Argentina’s soybean crushers.
In order for Argentina to maintain its soyoil and soymeal commitments in 2022/23, it had to import soybeans from Brazil.
Presently, the 2023/24 Brazil harvest was in its earliest stages. Reports said the soybean harvest in Mato Grasso was about one per cent complete. Meanwhile some farmers in other states in Brazil were still replanting their soybeans due to very wet or very dry conditions, depending on the region.
Back on the Canadian Prairies, Burnett forecast the region to remain rather mild temperature-wise at least to mid-January.
“There’s no huge pool of cold air over North America,” he said, adding Siberia has a similar situation.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
