El Nino seen transitioning to neutral in next month or two

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Reuters — The El Nino weather pattern is likely to transition into ENSO-neutral conditions in the next month or two, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

“ENSO-neutral” refers to periods in which neither El Nino nor La Nina is present, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, the CPC said in its monthly forecast.

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“During June, El Nino was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, SST anomalies across most of the eastern Pacific decreased during the month,” the weather forecaster added.

Last month, it had pegged the chances of the El Nino weather pattern continuing through the fall and winter a bit lower at 50-55 per cent.

The El Nino pattern brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years and was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods before it went away in 2016.

Historically, milder-than-normal winters and springs are known to occur in Western, northwestern and central Canada during El Nino periods, according to Environment Canada.

Eastern and Atlantic Canada aren’t known to be “significantly” impacted by El Nino events, though such an event may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.

— Reporting for Reuters by Nallur Sethuraman and Eileen Soreng in Bangalore. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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