Glacier Farm Media | MarketsFarm – Dry weather in Argentina could affect the country’s oilseeds as harvest approaches, reported the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Buenos Aires.
The Buenos Aires desk estimated the planted area for soybeans in 2024/25 at 17.80 million hectares, above the official USDA forecast of 16.90 million. The attaché said Argentine farmers were switching to soybeans from corn due to lingering concerns over corn stunt as well as low prices. The attaché noted the switch between the crops likely won’t be as significant as first thought due to a decline in the disease-carrying leafhopper population. The harvested area of 17.30 million hectares and production of 52 million tonnes, are the same as the department’s estimates.
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The attaché differed on soybean exports, at 7.30 million tonnes compared to five million by the USDA. The crush was a pinch higher at 42 million tonnes, 500,000 more than the official call. Feed waste came in lower at 6.30 million tonnes versus the USDA’s estimate of 7.60 million. That saw a disparity in total consumption with the Buenos Aires desk at 48.30 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s 49.10 million. The attaché estimated ending stocks at 11.22 million tonnes, nearly a million tonnes tighter than the official USDA forecast of 12.18 million.
Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crush is forecast by the attaché to generate nearly 8.30 million tonnes of soyoil, approximately one million more tonnes than the official estimate. Soyoil exports came in close with the attaché projecting 5.60 million tonnes and the USDA at 5.50 million, with ending stocks at 327,000 tonnes compared to the department’s 390,000.
As for Argentine soymeal, the attaché placed production at 32.76 million tonnes while the official call is at 32.37 million. There’s a small gap as well with soymeal exports, with the Buenos Aires desk at 29.50 million tonnes and the USDA at 28.60 million. Ending stocks varied with the attaché estimating them at 1.70 million tonnes with the USDA higher at 2.85 million.
The 2024/25 sunflower crop in Argentina was forecast to come in at four million tonnes by the attaché and the USDA. However, the Buenos Aires desk placed the crush at 3.80 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s 3.60 million but agreed on ending stocks at 675,000 tonnes.
With sunflower oil, the attaché pegged output at 1.66 million tonnes and the USDA placed it at 1.57 million. While both see exports at 900,000 tonnes, they varied slightly on ending stocks with the attaché at 675,000 tonnes and the USDA at 672,000.
As for the meal, the attaché estimated production at 1.69 million tonnes versus the department’s 1.61 million. The export projections matched at 1.05 million tonnes, but the Buenos Aires desk estimated ending stocks at 206,000 tonnes with the USDA at 257,000.
The department is scheduled to release its supply/demand estimates on Jan. 10 along with its world oilseed report.
