Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to slowly recover by the end of March, said broker Ryan Ettner of Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill. However, the tariff policies of the Trump administration could easily redirect that trend.
Ettner said the United States Department of Agriculture supply and demand estimates, issued on March 11, had very little effect on CBOT prices. The USDA didn’t change its 2024/25 forecasts on ending stocks of soybeans and corn but increased that for wheat by 25 million bushels.
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“Corn tailed off at the end of the day as people thought it would be bullish and it came in neutral,” he commented, noting Trump’s tariffs pushed prices lower.
‘You never know what you’re going to get’
However, Ettner said the daily tariff headlines could suddenly change the directions corn, soybeans and wheat are taking at a specific point in time.
“You never know what you’re going to get,” he noted, citing Trump is being more aggressive. “This is the same thing we did get the first time Trump was president, but now he doesn’t have to worry about re-election.”
Ettner said the USDA’s March 13 export sales report will be the first one that has accounted for Trump’s tariffs.
“People are sure this report is going to be horrible,” Ettner said, suggesting there could be a lot of selling before the department issues it.
USDA planted acres
Then come the end of March will be the USDA’s planted acres report, which Ettner predicted a two million to 2.5 million-acre shift from soybeans to corn, something that would be bearish for the latter in the short-term.
He suggested the report’s total planted acres needs to be considered, of which he said it could be down 500,000 acres. That alone is not overly significant, but that would be different it proves to be a drop of one million to two million acres.
