CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy in ‘Groundhog Day’ mode ahead of report

Traders expect report to show more U.S. soy acres, less corn area

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Published: June 25, 2020

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CBOT August 2020 soybeans with Bollinger (20,2) bands. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are biding their time in narrow, rangebound trade, awaiting updated acreage and stocks data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later in the month.

“It’s almost like Groundhog Day,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago, referring to the 1993 movie in which a TV weatherman is trapped reliving a single day repeatedly.

“We’ll probably continue to trade sideways until we get these reports, unless there’s any major changes in the U.S. weather forecast.”

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From a chart standpoint, Reilly placed September corn in a range between $3.24 and $3.29 per bushel (all figures US$). He saw support for August soybeans at $8.60, with resistance around $8.80 per bushel.

Weather conditions remain relatively favourable across the Midwest, “but if the rains don’t materialize over the next five days or so, then we could break to the upside of those ranges,” Reilly said.

General market expectations, ahead of USDA’s acreage report on Tuesday next week, call for an increase in soybean acres and a decrease in corn from the earlier forecasts of 83.5 million and 97 million acres respectively.

“Anything more than a 2.5 per cent change in the area would warrant a little bit of price action,” Reilly said

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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