Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — South American weather forecasts, positioning ahead of the Jan. 10 United States Department of Agriculture supply/demand report and uncertainty over trade policies under the incoming Trump administration were all influencing the Chicago grain and oilseed markets during the first days of 2025.
Surprises on any of those fronts could sway the markets in the days ahead, with both soybean and corn futures lacking any clear direction to start the year.
While dryness in Argentina has underpinned the soy market, updated forecasts calling for more moisture later in the month were somewhat bearish, said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist with Marex in Chicago. Although he added “it is summer in Argentina, so hot and dry conditions aren’t unusual.”
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Donald Trump has promised to impose import tariffs as soon as he takes office on Jan. 20. While markets remain uncertain just how much stock to take in his comments, the possibility that U.S. imports of used cooking oil from China and canola oil from Canada could be affected in any trade dispute was one supportive factor for soyoil, according to Reilly.
In the meantime, the USDA reports on Jan. 10 should provide nearby direction, with the general market sentiment looking for a cut to U.S. corn and soybean yields and tighter ending stocks.
“Anything can happen in this report, and the USDA tends to surprise us,” said Reilly, adding that over the past two decades the average price change for corn following the January report has been about 12 cents per bushel.
March corn was running into nearby resistance around US$4.60 per bushel. Reilly expected prices could go higher, with the next upside target at US$4.70 over the next week — although “you’ll need a little bit of a bullish kick to the market.”
U.S. winter wheat acreage numbers will be out on Jan. 10, with average pre-report expectations calling for winter wheat acres to be unchanged on the year. “If the USDA comes out with higher acres, (wheat futures) could see a bit of pressure.”
U.S. markets will close early on Thursday, Jan. 9, for a National Day of Mourning for former-President Jimmy Carter. Reilly expected speculative position evening and lower volumes could lead to some short-term volatility in the futures.
