AAFC ups canola exports, but leaves ending stocks unchanged

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Published: May 21, 2025

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AAFC ups canola exports, but leaves ending stocks unchanged

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Canadian canola exports in 2024/25 will be at least a million tonnes above earlier projections, but ending stocks remain to be seen as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada had to make some creative calculations in their latest supply/demand report.

With just over two months left in the marketing year, canola exports have already topped the previous target of 7.5 million tonnes, accounting for the upward revision to 8.5 million tonnes in the tables released May 21. However, AAFC left their call for 2024/25 ending stocks unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes.

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To make calculations work, AAFC is now using a feed, waste and dockage estimate of negative 609,000 tonnes. The numbers are “expected to be updated, pending revisions from Statistics Canada in upcoming releases.”

New crop canola carryout for 2025/26 was left unchanged at 2.0 million tonnes, despite adjustments to the domestic crush forecast.

Canola crush for 2025/26 is now forecast at 11.0 million tonnes, down from last month’s estimate of 12.0 million tonnes, on tighter supplies and heightened uncertainty over proposed tariffs and renewable energy mandates. “The forecast is tentative and may be significantly revised depending on ongoing tariff discussions and resulting impacts on world trade,” said AAFC adding “if current trade actions have only a marginal impact on world vegetable oil and protein meal markets, Canadian crush plants are forecast to operate at full capacity due to strong world demand.

May estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Grains and oilseeds
Production Exports
2025/26 2025/26 2024/25 2025/26 2025/26 2024/25
May April May April
All wheat 34.730 34.489 34.958 26.100 25.500 26.550
Durum 5.431 5.431 5.870 4.600 4.600 5.050
Barley 8.080 8.080 8.144 2.840 2.800 2.990
Corn 15.107 15.107 15.345 2.300 2.100 2.700
Oats 3.380 3.380 3.358 2.320 2.320 2.420
Canola 18.000 18.000 17.845 6.000 6.000 8.500
Flaxseed 0.230 0.230 0.258 0.200 0.200 0.250
Soybeans 7.250 7.250 7.568 5.450 5.450 5.400
TOTAL 87.514 87.273 88.048 45.410 44.555 48.966
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2025/26 2025/26 2024/25 2025/26 2025/26 2024/25
May April May April
All wheat 8.705 8.864 8.863 4.300 4.550 4.250
Durum 0.806 0.806 0.802 0.500 0.550 0.450
Barley 5.540 5.565 5.655 0.600 0.600 0.800
Corn 14.807 15.107 15.041 1.700 2.000 1.600
Oats 1.080 1.080 1.050 0.350 0.400 0.350
Canola 11.400 11.400 10.942 2.000 2.000 1.300
Flaxseed 0.090 0.090 0.092 0.040 0.040 0.090
Soybeans 2.250 2.250 2.465 0.555 0.675 0.555
TOTAL 44.320 44.820 44.509 9.745 10.465 9.055
Pulse and Special Crops
Production Exports
2025/26 2025/26 2024/25 2025/26 2025/26 2024/25
May April May April
Dry peas 3.125 3.125 2.997 1.300 1.300 2.100
Lentils 2.325 2.325 2.431 2.100 2.100 2.100
Dry beans 0.370 0.370 0.424 0.380 0.380 0.400
Chickpeas 0.265 0.265 0.287 0.175 0.175 0.165
Mustard 0.085 0.085 0.192 0.095 0.095 0.095
Canaryseed 0.125 0.125 0.185 0.120 0.120 0.120
Sunflower 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.030 0.030 0.050
TOTAL 6.346 6.346 6.568 4.200 4.200 5.030
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2025/26 2025/26 2024/25 2025/26 2025/26 2024/25
May April May April
Dry peas 0.770 0.770 0.612 1.700 1.775 0.625
Lentils 0.300 0.265 0.311 0.305 0.375 0.305
Dry beans 0.060 0.060 0.059 0.055 0.055 0.055
Chickpeas 0.085 0.085 0.081 0.155 0.155 0.110
Mustard 0.044 0.039 0.045 0.105 0.115 0.150
Canaryseed 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.085 0.080 0.095
Sunflower 0.066 0.066 0.066 0.115 0.130 0.135
TOTAL 1.340 1.300 1.188 2.520 2.685 1.475

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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