MarketsFarm – Canadian wheat ending stocks for both the current marketing year and 2023/24 (Aug/Jul) were revised lower by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division in its updated supply/demand estimates, released July 21, with tighter oats and pulse stocks also expected.
Wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 were lowered to 3.540 million tonnes by AAFC, from an estimated 3.980 million tonnes in June. The new crop wheat carryout was cut by 700,000 tonnes, to 5.100 million. Wheat production for 2023/24 was pegged at 35.331 million tonnes, down from 35.751 in June but still well above the 33.824 million tonnes grown in 2022/23.
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The oats carryout for 2023/24 was another notable adjustment, dropping to only 450,000 tonnes, from an estimated 1.000 million in June and the current marketing year target of 1.250 million tonnes. Total Canadian oats production was forecast at only 2.816 million tonnes in 2023/24, an 800,000 tonne drop from the June estimate and below the 5.226 million tonnes grown in 2022/23.
Canola production for 2023/24 was raised to 18.800 million tonnes, from 18.400 million in June. However, ending stocks were left unchanged at the relatively tight levels of 650,000 tonnes for the current crop year and 600,000 tonnes in 2023/24.
New crop production estimate for both peas and lentils were lowered from the June report as AAFC factored in Statistics Canada’s latest acreage estimates to 2.900 million and 2.100 million tonnes respectively. Pea ending stocks for 2023/24 are now forecast at 225,000 tonnes, from 375,000 in June and 400,000 the previous year. Lentil ending stocks are forecast at 125,000 tonnes, which would be down from the 200,000 tonnes projected in June but still up from the 100,000-tonne carryout anticipated for the current marketing year.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
