Mother Nature needs to turn on the heat for Ontario corn to reach its yield potential before harvest.
“We’re behind” in corn, Jim Irvine, of FS Partners/Great Lakes Grain, told Farmtario at Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show. “The weather has slowed things down. We need a warm, frost-free September.”
The 2023 Great Lakes Grain (GLG) crop assessment tour put boots on the ground across more than 800 fields in Windsor and the Ottawa region between Aug. 28 and Sept. 8.
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The assessment showed above-average yields for corn at 199.9 bushels per acre and average to below-average soybeans at 48.6 bu./acre.
“Both the corn and bean crop are behind in maturity and will need to remain frost-free into early October to see the corn crop reach full maturity,” stated the GLG crop assessment report.
“Beans also appear to be later this year, with many fields still green and lush compared to previous years of the Great Lakes Grain Tour.”
The crop assessment report indicates most areas are 100 to 190 corn heat units behind last year. Sunny, 20 C days and no frost into early October are needed to meet crop potential.
Ample rain in June limited stress but smoke from forest fires and resulting poor air quality created complex conditions that both enhanced and suppressed photosynthesis.
“We’re going to have a big corn crop because we planted a lot,” Irvine said. “We’re probably looking at higher moisture in the corn than we were a year ago, which is going to slow things down.”
Last year’s corn crop was good but dry and went through the combines quickly.
Brampton through Woodstock suffered heavily from drought last season and received substantial moisture this year, resulting in exceptional crops ranging from 166.6 bu./acre in the Peel Region to 202.9 and 205.2 bu./acre in Oxford and Waterloo regions.
“I would say this is probably the most consistent crop I’ve seen in probably the last 10 years across the province (as far as the) uniformity of the crop,” said Petra Hathaway, customer experience coach for AGRIS Co-operative/GLG.
Irvine agreed, pointing to Simcoe and Dufferin Counties where corn and soybean crops range from 191.7 and 54.5 bu.acre to 195.1 and 47.5 bu./acre, respectively. These counties usually show a 50- to 60-bu./acre deficit against Wellington and Huron counties, which reported 206.6 and 50.8 bu./acre and 205.3 and 49.7 bu./acre for corn and soybeans, respectively.
Soybeans suffered significant stand losses in some fields due to early-season dry soil conditions, poor emergence and excessive rain. However, they have recovered nicely, with similar or higher pod counts than last year.
The report indicated early-maturing soybeans are beginning to senesce and will likely be ready for harvest by the end of September, especially if night temperatures drop below 10 C.
“From the soybean point of view, we’ve got some excellent prices,” Irvine said, though 2023 corn faces the challenge of few forward contracts.
“It could be a surprise. Just today (Sept. 12), the USDA reported and changed their harvested acres by (an additional) 800,000 acres. The price of corn went down today even though their yield dropped.”
In June, dry conditions drew comparisons in the United States to the 2012 drought, leading to high prices, Irvine said, but after a good rain and a record plant, prices dropped.
