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For this forecast period, as we work into what's often the first month of winter across the Prairies, it looks like the current warmer and drier-than-average pattern of the last two months will continue. Now, to be fair, we need to realize that we are transitioning into winter. Average temperatures are cooling, so though the forecasting is calling for above-average temperatures, those temperatures are getting cooler and cooler.

This forecast starts with an area of low pressure over northern Ontario and a resulting push of cool air over the eastern half of the Prairies. Over the western half of the Prairies, a weak ridge of high pressure is moving in. This will bring sunny skies and average or above average temperatures.

As we work our way towards winter, we'll eventually have to start talking about snow... but it looks like that type of weather is at least another week away. Instead, the models show unseasonably warm weather continuing across much of the Prairies over this forecast period.

As this forecast period starts, the Prairies are feeling the effects of an upper ridge as it slowly slides eastwards and breaks down thanks due to low-pressure tracking over the ridge. Here is where things get interesting. Overall, the models have consistently shown an area of low-pressure tracking over the ridge late this week and over the weekend. This low is forecasted to drop southeastwards and deepen dramatically.

A large, deep area of low pressure is spinning over eastern Hudson Bay. Weak high pressure stretches across the northern part of the U.S. and into the southern Prairies. The strong counterclockwise rotation around the Hudson Bay low is pushing plenty of cool air southwards across the Prairies. Most regions have a good chance of frost early in this forecast period.