Grey skies over the Alberta landscape, July 2023. (Geralyn Wichers photo)

Prairie Forecast: Big change in weather pattern

Issued July 5, covering July 5-12

Most people have been saying that June felt like July and the weather statistics agreed. Well, if the weather models are correct, it’s looking like July will feel more like June — at least for the next forecast period. Here is the big picture before we dive into the details for each of the three […] Read more

Forecast probability of temperatures above, below and/or near normal for the period from July through September 2023, based on three equiprobable categories from 1991-2020 climatology. (Weather.gc.ca)

Dry, hot Canadian summer expected

Normal precip expected for Ontario, Quebec

MarketsFarm — Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across all of Canada for the next three months, with average precipitation in most of the agricultural areas of the Prairies. That’s according to the latest long-range seasonal forecast from Environment Canada, released Friday. The government department calls for a 50-70 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures from July […] Read more

Mammatus-type clouds over Winnipeg on the evening of July 2, 2023. (Dave Bedard photo)

Prairie Forecast Update: Low lingers in Manitoba

Issued July 2, covering July 3 to 5

The overall forecast remains on track across both Alberta and Saskatchewan, so only a small update is needed for Manitoba. Across Manitoba, the area of low pressure that has been tracking across the northern half of the Prairie provinces is now forecasted to take a little longer to exit this region. The two main impacts […] Read more

(Warchi/iStock/Getty Images)

Prairie Forecast: Alberta low to bring bit of a cooldown

Issued June 28, covering June 28 to July 5

After a fairly active weather pattern over the last few days, at least across the eastern half of the Prairies, it looks like most regions will see much quieter few days to start off this forecast period. Weak upper-level ridging combine with a broad but weak area of surface high pressure should bring typical summer […] Read more

Ripened saskatoon berries in Winnipeg on June 26, 2023. (Dave Bedard photo)

Prairie Forecast Update: Low to push across region’s east

Update issued June 25, covering June 25-28

There has been a little bit of a shift in the overall weather pattern according to the latest weather model runs. The arctic high is dropping east-southeast as expected and will be around James Bay by the middle of this week. Along the southern boundary of the arctic air, the weather models show an area […] Read more


Ducklings on display at the Red River Ex in Winnipeg on June 20, 2023 stuck to the shady side of the waterer as daytime temperatures maxed out at nearly 36 C. (Dave Bedard photo)

Prairie Forecast: Shift in the pattern

Issued June 21, covering June 21 to 28

The weather pattern that brought some record heat to the eastern Prairies, and some significant rains to parts of Alberta, looks like it will be undergoing a bit of change during this forecast period. The overall flow across the Prairies appears as though it will become predominantly northwesterly as an upper low sets up over […] Read more

File photo of stormy conditions over Alberta fields. (Larry Stickney/iStock/Getty Images)

Prairie Forecast Update: Alberta low to break in two

Forecast issued June 18, covering June 19-21

So far, the general forecast seems to be on track, but there have been some changes. The area of low pressure expected to develop and move north through Alberta is still on track but the weather models now it show it winding itself up across central and northern Alberta on Monday before it breaks apart […] Read more

File photo of storm clouds over northeastern Alberta. (ImagineGolf/E+/Getty Images)

Prairie Forecast: Alberta low looks to dominate

Forecast issued June 14, covering June 14-21

So far, the weather models have been doing a good job with the medium-range forecasts, only falling off late in the forecast period. Of course, in the summer, short-range forecasts can be difficult, especially when it comes to just when and where thunderstorms will develop. I always find it interesting that a forecast could be […] Read more


Smoke billows upwards from the Donnie Creek wildfire south of Fort Nelson, B.C. n June 11, 2023. (Photo: B.C. Wildfire Service handout via Reuters)

Western Canada covered in smoke as wildfires loosen grip on Quebec

Over 200 of 449 wildfires now out of control

Ottawa | Reuters — Smoke shrouded Western Canada on Monday as wildfires flared again in the main oil-producing province of Alberta, while firefighters in Quebec doused some of the worst early-season blazes, allowing thousands of evacuees to return home. Canada is enduring its most destructive start to wildfire season, with about 4.8 million hectares — […] Read more

(Brett Holmes Photography/iStock/Getty Images)

Prairie Forecast: Switch in pattern but summer sticking around

Forecast issued June 7, covering June 7-14

The weather models are doing a good job handling all the heat and humidity that has been driving thunderstorms and breaking temperature records across the eastern half of the Prairies over the last week. To the west it has been a little cooler and drier, with not as much instability to deal with, but nonetheless, […] Read more