Smoke rises from the southeast side of a wildfire being tackled by helicopters near Shining Bank, Alta., about 200 km west of Edmonton, on May 19, 2023. (Photo: Alberta Wildfire/Handout via Reuters)

Prairie Forecast Update: A few small tweaks

Update issued May 21, 2023, covering May 21-24, 2023

The weather models are continuing to do a good job with the short- to medium-range forecasts, but there have been a couple of small changes that have been slowly working into the forecast. Weak troughing off the West Coast is still forecasted to kick off the development of a leeside low in Alberta. This low […] Read more

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in degrees Celsius over the tropical Pacific Ocean for the week centred on April 12, 2023. (CPC.ncep.noaa.gov)

World could face record temperatures in 2023 as El Nino returns

New record highs 'more likely than not'

Brussels | Reuters — The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fuelled by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Nino weather phenomenon, climate scientists say. Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers global […] Read more

Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, in degrees Celsius, for the week centred on April 5, 2023. (CPC.ncep.noaa.gov)

U.S. forecaster sees 62 per cent chance of El Nino developing during May-July

Argentina, parts of U.S. could benefit; Asian crops may not

Reuters — A U.S. weather forecaster on Thursday predicted a 62 per cent chance of the El Niño phenomenon developing in the Northern Hemisphere during May-July, and a strong chance toward end-year, likely compounding risks to crops across the globe. “The coastal warming in the eastern Pacific may foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin. Therefore, […] Read more

Forecast probability of temperature above, below and near normal (calibrated) for the period of March, April and May 2023. (Map by Environment and Climate Change Canada)

‘Normal’ spring ahead for most of the Prairies

Below-normal rains expected for southern Alberta, western Saskatchewan

MarketsFarm — Canada’s Prairies are looking at normal temperatures over the next month to three months, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The federal department on Tuesday issued its temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts, which also called for normal precipitation for most of the region. “The forecast is really neutral for the Prairies, […] Read more

Highest temperatures over the seven-day period ending Jan. 23, 2023. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

Prairies’ warmer spell to be usurped by arctic front

MarketsFarm — While the Prairies have so far this month experienced rather non-January-like temperatures, a cold front coming south from the Arctic will soon descend on the region, according to Scott Kehler, president and chief scientist of Weatherlogics in Winnipeg. “What we are seeing is a big change in the weather pattern. For most of […] Read more


Vehicles are shown wrecked along the Highway 401/402 corridor near London, Ont. on Dec. 23, 2022. (Ontario Provincial Police photo via Twitter)

Winter storm causes havoc across Canada

Alberta ranchers shelter cattle against winds

Ottawa/Winnipeg | Reuters — Strong winds, freezing rain and heavy snowfall closed schools, cut power to homes and cancelled flights across Canada on Friday as a powerful winter storm swept across the country, prompting authorities to warn people to stay indoors ahead of worsening conditions. The storm is connected to the same freezing weather system […] Read more

(Mysticenergy/iStock/Getty Images)

Environment Canada sees ‘average’ Prairie winter ahead

MarketsFarm — An ‘average’ winter is in the forecast for most of the Canadian Prairies, according to the latest long-range seasonal forecast for December through February from Environment Canada, released Wednesday. The government department is calling for normal temperatures across all the agricultural areas of the three Prairie provinces — aside from the northernmost reaches […] Read more

Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for the week centred on Sept. 14, 2022. (CPC.ncep.noaa.gov)

La Nina set to continue for third year

Other weather patterns may override temporarily

MarketsFarm — With fall soon upon North America, there’s nothing overly unusual with the continuation of La Nina, according to Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. at Overland Park, Kansas. Going into its third year, some people might think this is the third consecutive La Nina — but Lerner said it’s the same one, […] Read more


File photo of wheat south of Ethelton, Sask. on Aug. 1, 2022. (Dave Bedard photo)

Prairies’ high-pressure ridge should give way by mid-month

Brisk harvest pace expected meanwhile

MarketsFarm — While there’s not one specific cause of the hot September the Canadian Prairies has generally been having so far, Weatherlogics chief scientist Scott Kehler notes one particular shorter-term factor. “There is a fairly strong upper-level ridge of high pressure across the Prairies right now,” he explained, adding it should dissipate by mid-month. The […] Read more