Wittal: More U.S. harvest delays support prices

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Published: October 29, 2009

Oct. 29 — A half-cent drop in the U.S. dollar sparked renewed interest in the financial, energy and grain markets today. The Canadian dollar closed up 1.11 cents today at US93.79 cents.

The Dow Jones December quote closed up 192 points today at 9,903. 

Crude oil closed up $2.41 today at US$79.87 per barrel.

Corn closed up 10.4-11.2 cents a bushel today. Beans, meanwhile, closed up 16.2-17.6 cents a bushel.

Wheat futures closed up four to 10 cents a bushel today. Minneapolis December wheat closed up 4.6 cents a bushel for the day.

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Wittal: More U.S. harvest delays support prices

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Canola closed up $1.20-$4 per tonne today.

November Western barley futures closed down $2, at $165 per tonne.

Continued harvest weather delays in the U.S., as another rainy weather system is moving across the central prairie regions, helped to spark renewed activity in the bean markets today. This lent support to the wheat, corn and canola markets.

Weekly export sales and shipment numbers were above weekly targets for beans and this helped to add momentum to the futures today.

Weekly wheat and corn export and shipment numbers were below weekly targets, so that resulted in both of those grains backing down off of the highs of the day as the trade closed.

Due to the sharp drop in grain prices over the past six months farmers throughout the European Union are considering selling their barley back to the government into intervention stocks under the price guarantee programs that are available in some countries. If prices remain at current levels, it’s expected that four million to six million tonnes of barley could be put back into intervention stocks.

EU intervention stocks were at a high of 14 million tonnes in 2006-07 and were brought down to one million this past year. These stocks will sit in governments’ hands until such time as they deem fit to sell them, which I hope is slowly over the next few years so as to not impact world values negatively.

Reports that some areas across Western Canada still have up to 50 per cent of the canola still in the fields are a little concerning for some in the canola Industry. Forecasts for better weather this weekend should help harvest progress and, with any luck, get done in the next two weeks!

That’s all for today. — Brian

— Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as grain producers.

Brian welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts. Contact Brian today.

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