Oct. 1 — Outside markets were mixed today. Financials continued to slide as reports out of the U.S. and Canada confirm it’s going to take longer than first anticipated to get out of this recessional slump.
This prompted reinvestment into the U.S. dollar, which rose half a cent today/ Conversely the Canadian dollar fell 1.4 cents today, closing at US92.24 cents.
The Dow Jones December quote finished down 182 points, closing at 9,471 today.
Crude oil closed up 21 cents a barrel at US$70.82.
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Corn closed down three to four cents a bushel today, while beans closed down four to 10 cents a bushel.
Wheat futures closed down two to 12 cents a bushel. Minneapolis December wheat closed down four cents a bushel for the day.
Canola closed up $2-$7.80 per tonne today.
October Western barley was unchanged, closing at $105 per tonne. November futures closed unchanged as well, at $148 per tonne.
The FCStone Group has put all U.S. crop yield estimates up, and it’s expected that Informa’s report, due out tomorrow, will say the same thing, so we continue to see inventories building in the U.S. just like in many other parts of the world.
Weekly export sales numbers were at or slightly above expected levels, which was supportive, and the fact that frost did hit parts of the northern States last night should have helped markets stay positive, but overshadowing this are the continued reports of larger yields from around the world.
Canola found support from a falling Canadian dollar and the late-day rally triggered by traders trying to square up their positions ahead of tomorrows Statistics Canada report.
Barley was unchanged on a day of little or no trading activity. Feeders are content right now to sit back and see what this weather will do over the next week and how that will impact grain quality going forward.
Feed wheat values are starting to drop slowly as reports of frost damage on the wheat are starting to come out, meaning more feed grains available for feeders to choose from.
Lentil values are still holding at historically high levels, but with the StatsCan production estimates expected to be up over the last report, you can expect prices will start to fall sooner than later, if for no other reason than to follow all other grains lower.
Historically high prices and large yields don’t mix well. One of them is going to fall, and it looks like it’s high prices’ turn to tumble sooner than later.
That’s all for today. — Brian
— Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as grain producers.
Brian welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts. Contact Brian today.
