GlacierFarm | Media MarketsFarm – Coming within market expectations was essentially the central theme in the September supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture released on Sept. 12.
In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates there were very few changes in its domestic soybean and corn numbers for 2024/25. Soybean yields were held over from the August report at 53.2 bushels per acre while the trade average guess was 53.4. Production dipped to 4.586 billion bushels from 4.589 billion, with the market expecting 4.609 billion. The crop’s ending stocks were trimmed by 10 million bushels at 550 million, below the trade’s call of 584 million.
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U.S. corn yields for 2024/25 of 183.6 bu./ac. were nudged up from August’s 183.1 and surpassed the average trade guess of 182.7. September production was slated for 15.186 billion bushels, a bit more than last month’s forecast for 15.147 billion and the trade’s estimate of 15.154 billion. The carryover of 2.057 billion bushels came in below last month’s figure of 2.073 billion, but higher the 2.009 billion expected by the market.
The USDA kept 2024/25 wheat ending stocks at 828 million bushels while the trade thought they would slip to 820 million.
On the world stage, the USDA raised wheat ending stocks to 257.22 million tonnes from their August estimate of 256.6 million. The carryover for corn was reduced to 308.35 million tonnes from 310.20 million and that for soybeans was bumped up to 134.58 million tonnes from 134.3 million.
As for specific countries, the USDA lowered 2023/24 soybean production for Argentina to 48.10 million tonnes from last month’s 49.0 million, while keeping Brazil’s output at 153.0 million tonnes. Also for the outgoing crop year, Argentina corn production remained at 50.0 million tonnes and Brazil’s stayed at 122.0 million.
For 2024/25, the USDA held all of its calls with Russian wheat production at 83.0 million tonnes. Also, Argentina soybeans and corn at 51.0 million tonnes each, with Brazil soybeans at 169.0 million tonnes and its corn at 127.0 million tonnes.
In the USDA’s report on world oilseeds, the department made some changes including those for Canada. Output in Canada for 2023/24 was increased to 19.12 million tonnes from 18.80 million, while the coming harvest remained at 20.0 million tonnes. Canadian exports for 2024/25 were cut to seven million tonnes from 7.45 million and the domestic use was raised to 12.99 million tonnes from 12.70 million. Ending stocks were hiked from 1.96 million tonnes to 3.20 million.
The USDA reduced world rapeseed production in 2024/25 to 87.56 million tonnes from 88.83 million in August. The current year’s ending stocks were raised to 8.34 million tonnes from 7.98 million.
