Glacier FarmMedia – Projected ending stocks of soybeans, corn and wheat in the United States were raised slightly higher in the latest supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture, while production estimates for Brazil were revised lower.
The USDA upped its call for 2023/24 U.S. soybean carryout to 315 million bushels, which topped average trade guesses and compares with the previous estimate of 280 million bushels. The world soybean ending stocks for the marketing year were increased to 116.0 million tonnes, which compares with the January forecast of 114.6 million tonnes and the 2022/23 carryout of 103.6 million tonnes.
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Brazil’s soybean crop was pegged at 156 million tonnes by the government agency, which was down by only a million tonnes from the January forecast and well above average trade guesses closer to 153 million tonnes. Brazil’s Conab placed the country’s soybean crop at only 149.4 million tonnes in its own report out earlier in the day. The USDA left its call for Argentina’s soybean production unchanged at 50.0 million tonnes, double what was grown during the previous drought-stricken year.
For corn, the USDA raised its U.S. ending stocks estimate by 0.5 per cent at 2.172 billion bushels but lowered its world carryout to 322.2 million tonnes from 325.2 million in January. Brazil’s expected corn production was down by three million tonnes on the month at 127 million tonnes, while Argentina’s corn crop was left unchanged at 55.0 million tonnes.
The U.S. wheat carryout was forecast at 658 million bushels, which compares with the January estimate of 648 million bushels and the 570 million bushels seen at the end of the 2022/23 marketing year. World wheat ending stocks were estimated at 259.4 million tonnes, which was down only slightly from the 260.0 million tonnes forecast in January but well below the 2022/23 world wheat carryout of 271.2 million tonnes.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
