Glacier FarmMedia – Soybean and corn production in Brazil remains uncertain after a pair of conflicting reports released April 11.
The United States Department of Agriculture left Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean production unchanged from March in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 155.0 million tonnes, surprising market participants who had generally anticipated a cut given the adverse conditions during the growing season. Meanwhile, Conab, Brazil’s USDA-equivalent organization, released their own report earlier in the day pegging soybean production at only 146.5 million tonnes.
The discrepancy was also evident in corn, as the USDA held their forecast for Brazilian production at 124.0 million tonnes and Conab dropped their call to only 111.0 million tonnes.
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Brazil grew 162.0 million tonnes of soybeans and 137.0 million tonnes of corn in 2022/23, according to the USDA.
The USDA also left its forecast for Argentina’s soybean crop unchanged from the previous month at 50.0 million tonnes, while lowering the call for the country’s corn production by a million tonnes – now at 55.0 million tonnes. Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange recently cut their forecast on corn production to 50.5 million tonnes, citing disease concerns. Argentina grew 25.0 million tonnes of soybeans and 36.0 million tonnes of corn in 2022/23.
The monthly USDA report also included updates to the U.S. balance sheets. The USDA raised its call on soybean carryout in 2023/24 to 340 million bushels, which came in well above average trade estimates and compares with the March estimate of 315 million bushels. If realized, the stocks would be up by 29 per cent from the 264 million bushels on hand at the end of the 2022/23 marketing year.
World soybean ending stocks were only revised slightly by the USDA, down by 50,000 tonnes from the March forecast at 114.22 million tonnes.
U.S. corn ending stocks were forecast at 2.122 billion bushels, which would be down from the March forecast of 2.172 billion bushels but still well above the 1.360-billion-bushel corn carryout the previous year. The world corn ending stocks were estimated at 318.28 million tonnes by the USDA, which was down from the March forecast but at the higher end of trade expectations.
U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised to 698 million bushels, from 673 million bushels in March. The world wheat carryout was below average trade guesses at 258.27 million tonnes. That compares with 271.00 million tonnes the previous year.
—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
