Glacier FarmMedia – The Global Agricultural Information Network of the United States Department of Agriculture issued a series of reports during the week ended Jan. 26. Of those, some of them could have an affect on the North American markets.
One of those reports pertained to Canada and its wheat production. Written by the USDA attaché in Ottawa, the report stated drought could be a major concern for 2024/25 across the Prairies, citing low snowfall this winter and a lack of soil moisture following the 2023/24 harvest. The attaché added that grasshoppers are set to be an issue for Alberta and Saskatchewan this coming growing season.
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Meanwhile, the Ottawa desk pegged the 2023/24 Canadian wheat harvest at 31.95 million tonnes, down from 34.34 million the year before. Exports for this year were forecast at 23.30 million tonnes, short of the 25.60 million in 2022/23. The attaché pegged ending stocks for 2023/24 are expected to dip to 3.54 million tonnes compared to the 3.66 million last year.
In comparison with data compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2023/24 production was slotted at 31.95 million tonnes, exports of 23.20 million, and a carryover of 3.95 million.
The USDA attaché in Beijing projected China’s 2023/24 corn crop to grow by 4.2 per cent at 288.84 million tonnes due to heavy rains during the summer. Corn imports were forecast to increase to 20 million tonnes in 2023/24 from last year’s 18.71 million. The Beijing desk noted that Brazil, with 10 million tonnes, surpassed the United States in 2023/24 as China’s top source of imported corn.
China’s corn for feed and residual was nudged up from 220 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 223 million. The carryover is to increase to 206.85 million tonnes from 203.03 million.
For Mexico, it’s 2023/24 corn crop faced unfavourable weather, reduced planted area, and smaller than expected yields. The attaché in Mexico City placed the harvest at 25.5 million tonnes compared to the 28.08 million in 2022/23. Corn imports were to bump up from 19.36 million tonnes to 19.60 million. Ending stocks were projected to fall from 4.5 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 2.80 million this year.
The 2023/24 corn crop in South Africa won’t be as large as the previous year’s harvest of 17.06 million tonnes, according to the USDA attaché in Pretoria. The attaché estimated this year’s crop at 15.80 million tonnes, citing rain-delayed planting in some regions of South Africa, with dryness in the North West province. That’s to see exports contract from 3.80 million tonnes in 2022/23 to three million in 2023/24. However, total consumption was projected to rise from 12.75 million tonnes to 13.10 million. In the end, the Pretoria desk set the carryout to decline from 19.01 million tonnes to 18.26 million.
In Kuala Lumpur, the USDA attaché in Malaysia said that country’s palm oil production is to increase from 18.40 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 19 million this year. The attaché pointed to Malaysia being less affected by the El Nino than anticipated, reduced labour challenges, and less replanting of palm trees. Exports were set to climb from 15.36 million tonnes last year to 16.60 million this year. That’s to lead to ending stocks falling from 2.33 million tonnes in 2023/24 to 1.65 million this year.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
