MarketsFarm — Canada is expected to see a 30 per cent increase in grain production in 2022-23, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Ottawa.
Expectations for improved yields for Prairie grain crops after the 2021-22 drought accounted for much of the projected increase, although USDA also cautioned persistent drought conditions in the western Prairies kept an element of risk in the forecast.
USDA’s Ottawa attaché is calling for total wheat production of 31.6 million tonnes in 2022-23, which would be up by nearly 10 million tonnes from the previous year.
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With the larger production, Canadian wheat exports are also expected to be up on the year, rising to 21.9 million tonnes from an estimated 15.6 million in 2021-22.
In addition, “the distribution of Canada’s wheat will likely change, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, if Ukraine is unable to harvest its winter wheat crop,” USDA said.
Indonesia, Bangladesh, Morocco and Tunisia were four countries singled out by USDA that have imported from both Canada and Ukraine in the past.
The FAS Ottawa office sees Canadian barley production rising to 9.4 million tonnes, from 6.9 million in the current marketing year, as a return to trend-line yields should more than compensate for a slight decline in seeded acres.
Canadian corn production is forecast to hold relatively steady on the year, at an expected 13.6 million tonnes. That compares with 13.9 million tonnes in 2021-22. Ontario, Canada’s leading corn-growing province, relies heavily on Russian fertilizer.
Canadian corn imports surged sharply higher in 2021-22 due to tight domestic feed grain supplies. The Ottawa attaché expects total corn imports in the current marketing year of 4.8 million tonnes. That would be a million tonnes above USDA’s own official guess and compares with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s projection of around four million tonnes. Canada imported only 1.6 million tonnes of corn in 2020-21, and the FAS Ottawa office is forecasting 2.4 million tonnes for 2022-23.
Strong projected returns relative to other crops should lead to an increase in Canadian oat acres, according to the attaché. Total oats production in the country is forecast at four million tonnes, which compares with 2.6 million in 2021-22.
