U.S. livestock: Live cattle firm as packer margins turn negative

Lean hog futures settle lower

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Published: October 11, 2022

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CME December 2022 live cattle (candlesticks) with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages (pink, dark red and black lines). (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle futures firmed on Tuesday as supplies tighten, with beef packer margins falling into the negative for the first time in years, traders said.

Beef packers lost $14.35 per head on Tuesday, compared to earnings of $1.60 a day earlier and $18.40 the week before, according to Denver-based livestock marketing advisory service HedgersEdge.com (all figures US$).

Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 128,000 cattle on Tuesday, the same pace as a week ago and up from 120,000 cattle a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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That beef packer margins have gone into the red “just tells you that the (cattle) numbers are tightening, and the feedlots have the upper hand,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities. “We’ve been (in) four years of liquidation, so it’s time to build the herd.”

But cattle future prices were capped by ongoing uncertainty over demand, said Dan Norcini, an independent livestock trader.

“As U.S. consumers become more concerned about rising prices, they tend to look for cheaper prices in the meat counter — and that impacts beef,” Norcini said.

Feeder cattle futures rose, bolstered by slumping corn futures, while lean hog futures ended down on profit-taking as investors awaited fresh news to gauge demand levels, traders said.

The CME October live cattle ended the day up 1.1 cents at 145.8 cents/lb. and the most-active December contract settled up 1.575 cents at 148.575 cents.

CME November feeder cattle settled up 3.325 cents at 176.2 cents/lb.

The most-active CME December lean hog futures contract settled down 0.075 cent at 79.575 cents/lb. Front-month October hogs slipped 0.725 cent to settle at 93.025 cents/lb.

— Reporting for Reuters by P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago; additional reporting by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago.

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