U.S. grains: Wheat falls on Russian production outlook

Exports underpin U.S. soybeans

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Published: September 19, 2022

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CBOT December 2022 soft red winter wheat (candlesticks) with 20-day moving average (green line), MGEX December 2022 spring wheat (yellow line) and K.C. December 2022 hard red wheat (orange line). (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago wheat fell on Monday on an expected increase in Russia’s crop that will compete with U.S. exports, already hampered by a strong U.S. dollar, traders said.

Soybeans were underpinned by Chinese export demand, while corn ended up slightly after two-sided trade on broader economic uncertainty.

Chicago Board of Trade most active wheat lost 29-1/4 cents to $8.30-1/2 a bushel (all figures US$).

Soybeans added 12-3/4 cents to end at $14.61-1/4 a bushel, while corn inched up one cent to $6.78-1/4 a bushel.

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Russian consultancy IKAR raised its forecast of Russia’s 2022 wheat crop by two million tonnes, noting the world’s largest wheat exporter will have 47.5 million tonnes available for shipment in the 2022-23 marketing year.

“We’re seeing bigger and bigger production out of Russia,” said Ed Duggan, senior risk management specialist at Top Third Ag Marketing. “What’s going to make our commodities attractive on a world market? Not with a high dollar.”

Equities and crude oil fell, while the dollar firmed ahead of central bank meetings in the U.S. and elsewhere which could lead to higher borrowing costs globally.

Continued Ukrainian grain export shipments into world markets also weighed.

Some 165 ships with 3.7 million tonnes of agricultural products have left Ukraine in a safe shipping channel. Another ship chartered by the United Nations’ World Food Programme left Ukraine with around 30,000 tonnes of wheat for Ethiopia.

Soybeans prices rose as U.S. exporters sold 136,000 tonnes of the oilseed to China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

“The beans are taking off on new demand today,” said Jack Scoville, market analyst at The Price Futures Group. “We’re getting closer to harvest, so that will weigh on things more and more.”

U.S. exporters readied 518,743 tonnes of soybeans for shipment the week ended Sept. 15, up 51.81 per cent from the week prior, USDA said, and in line with analyst expectations.

Corn inspections of 549,354 tonnes were up 15.8 per cent versus a week earlier, while wheat inspections of 790,145 tonnes were up 4.27 per cent, both within analyst predictions.

— Christopher Walljasper reports on agriculture and ag commodities for Reuters from Chicago.

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