Chicago | Reuters — Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended the day higher on Thursday on a flurry of late-session buying, as the market struggled to gain clarity on the size of the Brazilian crop, traders said.
Both the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Brazilian crop agency Conab lowered their forecasts on the size of Brazil’s soybean crop production following hot, dry weather.
But how much smaller the crop might get was still not clear, as the agencies continued to paint different pictures, traders said.
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Meanwhile, USDA raised Brazil’s 2022-2023 record soybean crop and its soy ending stocks, according to the monthly world supply and demand report released Thursday.
“What it says is, last year was this record crop that just keeps on giving,” said Susan Stroud, analyst with the No Bull newsletter and commodity advisory service.
“Not only did Brazil have a record crop last year, but they have copious amounts of bushels that are still sitting around,” she said.
Brazil’s harvests are important because it is the world’s largest soy supplier and competes with the United States for global sales.
Corn futures briefly turned positive – before easing back down – on news that Brazil’s corn crop is a littler smaller than the trade was expecting, traders said.
And wheat futures continued to feel pressure from signs of falling prices in top wheat exporter Russia have reinforced concerns about stiff competition for exports.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 settled up 4-1/5 cents at $11.93-1/2 per bushel.
CBOT corn Cv1 ended down 1 cent at $4.33-1/4 per bushel, and CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 13-1/2 cents lower at $5.88-1/2 per bushel.
Soybean futures eased mid-session after USDA pegged Brazilian soy production at 156 million metric tons, down from 157 million tons in January, according to USDA’s monthly global supply and demand report.
That forecast is far bigger than the estimate put out on Thursday by Conab, which pegged Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop at 149.4 million metric tons.
–-Additional reporting by Julie Ingwersen and Tom Polansek in Chicago.
