U.S. grains: Soybeans ease on global stocks

Exports, South American weather underpin soy; corn steady

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Published: December 10, 2022

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CBOT January 2023 soybeans with Bollinger bands (20,2). (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago soybeans eased on Friday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its estimate of global ending stocks, though strong exports and South American weather concerns underpinned the market.

Corn traded both sides of even, despite an increase in U.S. stockpiles, while wheat eased.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 2-1/2 cents to $14.83-3/4 a bushel, but ended the week up 3.15 per cent, its strongest since the week ended Nov. 4 (all figures US$).

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CBOT wheat lost 12 cents to settle at $7.34-1/4 a bushel, falling 3.52 per cent this week, its fifth consecutive week of declines.

Corn ended 1-1/2 cents higher at $6.44 a bushel, up 0.348 per cent on the week.

Soybeans eased despite support from increased export demand and dry conditions in top producer Argentina, though recent rains could aid the early South American crop.

Exports from Argentina could be hampered by an unwillingness by growers in the country to sell old crop until they see the condition of the upcoming harvest, said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.

“Argentine farmers are holding back on selling as aggressively,” he said. “They’re holding old crop until they know their new crop is made.”

Gains in soybeans are further limited by sluggishness in the grains complex.

“I think we’re at a price level now where, if soybeans want to take out $15, they’re really going to need the wheat and corn with them,” said Zuzolo.

USDA’s monthly supply and demand report was mostly in line with market expectations, so did little to move the markets.

“There’s nothing in this report that should have come as a surprise to anyone. Fifteen minutes after this report came out, the market was already looking forward to what the January report would say,” said Karl Setzer, commodity risk analyst at Agrivisor.

Ukrainian corn exports are expected to reach 17.5 million tonnes for the 2022-23 marketing year, USDA said, up from 15.5 million tonnes in its November report. Global ending stocks for corn were decreased by 2.36 million tonnes to 298.4 million tonnes.

2022-23 world ending stocks for soybeans increased by 540,000 tonnes to 102.71 million tonnes, while global wheat supplies dropped by 490,000 tonnes to 67.33 million tonnes, USDA said.

— Christopher Walljasper reports on agriculture and ag commodities for Reuters from Chicago.

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