Chicago | Reuters — Chicago soybean prices fell on Tuesday, a day after hitting an eight-month high, ahead of the U.S. Agriculture Department’s monthly global supply and demand assessment that is expected to downgrade South American crop production.
Corn also eased, while wheat firmed, underpinned by ongoing dryness across the U.S. southern Plains.
The Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) most-active soybean contract ended 12-3/4 cents lower at $15.69 a bushel (all figures US$).
CBOT corn fell three cents to $6.32-1/4 a bushel, while CBOT wheat firmed 10 cents to $7.78-3/4 a bushel.
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Grain markets are positioning ahead of world supply and demand forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Wednesday.
“When ending stocks are as tight as they are, and South American production is uncertain, even a neutral report can get an overzealous reaction in the market,” said Karl Setzer, commodity risk analyst at Agrivisor.
Soybean farmers in Brazil and Argentina this season have battled hot, dry conditions, though Brazil’s top-producing region of Mato Grosso improved its 2021-22 yield forecast by 9.5 per cent to 39.48 million tonnes. Soybean harvest in the region reached 46.66 per cent as of Feb. 4, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics said.
Brazil is expected to export 7.5 million tonnes of soybeans in February, farm consultancy ANEC said, down from 9.923 million tonnes projected the week prior.
Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 332,000 tonnes of soybeans unknown destinations for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year, USDA said.
Analysts are also watching for USDA’s read on U.S. exports.
“Do we see them start to pull down U.S. carryout, on higher backend exports?” said Andrew Jackson, broker at Producers Hedge. “If Brazil starts running out of beans late summer, does that open up a window that we didn’t have last year?”
— Reporting for Reuters by Christopher Walljasper; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.
