New York | Reuters — Chicago soybean and corn futures shot up on Thursday following a closely watched U.S. government report forecasting a smaller corn and soybean harvest than previously projected, and below an average of analysts’ estimates.
The Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) most-active soybean futures contract jumped about three per cent to settle at $12.90 a bushel, its biggest single-day percentage gain since July 13 (all figures US$).
The trade whipsawed over a range of nearly 50 cents, dipping early in the day to $12.50-1/2 and climbing as high as $12.99-3/4. The rally lifted other soy products: CBOT December soyoil rose about 1.2 per cent and December soymeal surged $15.80, more than four per cent.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a monthly report pegged the soybean harvest at 4.104 billion bushels, 42 million fewer bushels than forecast in September and 30 million bushels below an average of analysts’ estimates. USDA also forecast smaller soybean yields, and projected soybean ending stocks holding steady at the September level.
“I think by appearance, this would look avowedly like a bullish report for soybeans,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale.
But he said nothing in the data showed any significant improvement in export demand given competition from Brazil, the globe’s top soybean producer.
“The problem is Brazil already has us beat on price; as we go into the next three months it actually widens, the price discount is even larger in the next two or three months,” he said, and added that he expected the ending stocks number to rise as the harvest proceeded and demand languished.
Corn futures climbed eight cents to settle at $4.96 a bushel, and wheat futures rose almost 2.75 per cent to settle at $5.71-1/2 a bushel.
On Friday, USDA will issue weekly U.S. grain and soy export sales data, one day later than normal.
— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York City; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.
