New York | Reuters — A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday warned that much-watched El Nino conditions are likely to last another nine months, potentially roiling global crops and commodities prices.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center projected a more than 90 per cent chance that El Nino would continue through this winter and an 80 per cent likelihood it would last into the Northern Hemisphere’s early spring.
Global forecasters have been heightening calls for a stronger and longer El Nino.
Last month, the CPC extended its forecast, saying El Nino was likely to last through the winter.
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Across the contiguous U.S., the effects of El Nino are likely to remain minimal through the summer and increase into the late fall and winter, the CPC said on Thursday.
El Nino, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures, can have devastating consequences for agriculture, triggering heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and as far away as east Africa.
The weather pattern increases precipitation in key U.S. agricultural regions and reduces the likelihood of a busy hurricane season from June to November that can disrupt energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
In Canada, an El Nino event’s effects are generally, though not always, associated with warmer winters from British Columbia through to central Quebec — with the most significant warming generally over Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
El Nino is also generally linked to relatively dry winters over southern regions from the B.C. Interior through to the Great Lakes.
— Reporting for Reuters by Chris Prentice. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.
