Glacier FarmMedia – The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) released May 10 featured the first production and ending stocks estimates for the 2024-25 marketing year.
Overall, the agency’s projections for next year were either steady or lower than what the trade expected.
U.S. wheat production for 2024-25 was estimated at 1.858 billion bushels, which was below average trade guesses but slightly above the 1.812 million tonnes grown in 2023-24. Average wheat yields were forecast to increase slightly on the year at 48.9 bushels per acre.
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Exports for 2024-25 were estimated at 775 million bushels, up from 720 million in 2023-24. Ending stocks for 2023-24 were projected at 688 million bushels, down eight million from the trade’s average estimate, while those for 2024-25 were at 766 million bushels, down 20 million from trade expectations.
Global wheat production for 2024-25 was pegged at 798.19 million tonnes, slightly ahead of 787.72 million in 2023-24. World ending stocks for 2023-24 were set to be 257.8 million, 900,000 above the average trade estimate, while those for 2024-25 were 253.61 million, down 3.76 million from the average trade guess. Canada was set to produce 34 million tonnes of wheat in 2024-25 with ending stocks at 3.12 million.
New crop U.S. corn production was estimated at 14.86 billion bushels, slightly down from the average trade guess but 482 million lower from 2023-24. Ninety million acres were projected to be planted in 2024-25 with an average yield per harvested acre of 181 bu./ac.
U.S. corn exports were expected to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion in 2024-25 to go with ending stocks at 2.102 billion. The latter figure is down from the 2.284 billion projected by the trade but up from 2.022 billion in 2023-24.
Global corn production for 2024-25 was estimated at 1.220 billion tonnes, down from 1.228 billion the previous year. World carryout for 2024-25 was pegged at 312.27 million tonnes, relatively steady from the year prior. Brazilian corn production for 2023-24 was set for 122 million tonnes by the USDA and for 127 million in 2024-25. The Argentine corn crops were projected to be 53 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 51 million in 2024-25.
Soybean production in the U.S. was projected at 4.45 billion bushels, close to the average trade estimate and up 285 million from 2023-24. Planted acres were expected to total 86.5 million acres for 2024-25 with an average yield per harvested acre of 52 bu./ac.
U.S. soybean exports for 2024-25 were set to increase by 125 million bushels from the previous year at 1.825 billion. Ending stocks for 2024-25 may rise by 105 million bushels from the previous year at 445 million, with figures for both years close to trade estimates.
World soybean production for 2024-25 was pegged at 422.26 million tonnes, up from 396.95 million the previous year. Global ending stocks for 2024-25 were set for 128.5 million tonnes, up 7.63 million from the average guess, while those for 2023-24 were slated to be 111.78 million, slightly below the average trade estimate.
The estimated Brazilian soybean crop was at 169 million tonnes for 2024-25, up 15 million from the previous year. Argentina’s soybean crop was expected to be 51 million for new crop, up one million from 2023-24.
—Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
