Stocks of canola, wheat and many other Canadian grains and oilseeds are tighter than they were a year ago in the latest Statistics Canada report showing supplies in all positions as of March 31.
The data was generally seen as supportive — but caused no immediate reaction in the markets.
“The stocks are down for pretty much everything, which is no surprise,” said analyst Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
The data will be seen as a reminder of how tight many commodities are heading into the new crop year, he said. The stocks numbers will allow market participants to make some adjustments to their supply/demand estimates going forward.
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Canola stocks were pegged at 3.9 million tonnes as of March 31, the tightest for that time of year since 2005, and well down from 5.2 million at the same point in 2012.
“If you take the numbers at face value, it would suggest that canola is looking tighter than trade expectations,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Communications, adding that the pace of usage was probably running a little stronger than anticipated.
However, the lack of response in the futures to the tight stocks number could be seen as a sign that production and/or carry-in supplies were being underestimated by StatsCan. Jubinville said the government agency has a history of revising those numbers higher in its final report for the crop year, which will show stocks as of July 31.
All wheat supplies, as of March 31, were estimated at 13.4 million tonnes, which compares with 14.6 million at the same point the previous year and would be the tightest for that time of year since 2008.
Of that total, durum supplies came in at about 2.7 million tonnes, down slightly from the 3.1 million tonnes on-farm and in commercial positions at the same point in 2012.
Jubinville said barley and oats supplies were on the tight side as well, but noted prices are already strong for those commodities with the tight stocks factored into the market already.
“You can’t deny that ending stocks for all of these commodities are tight this year,” said Jubinville, adding that “there’s not one that could be described as ‘bearish.’”
Oats supplies were estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, which compares with 1.7 million the previous year. Barley, at 2.9 million tonnes, compares with 3.3 million in 2012.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.
Related story:
Tightening canola stocks to be watched in StatsCan report, May 2, 2013
Table: Statistics Canada’s grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report as of March 31, 2013, in thousands of tonnes. Source: Statistics Canada.
| On farms | On farms | Commercial | Commercial | Total | Total | |
| 2012-13 | 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2011-12 | |
| All wheat | 9,133 | 10,225 | 4,326 | 4,427 | 13,459 | 14,652 |
| Durum wheat | 1,610 | 2,110 | 1,053 | 977 | 2,663 | 3,087 |
| Oats | 917 | 1,529 | 297 | 202 | 1,214 | 1,731 |
| Barley | 2,610 | 2,925 | 351 | 355 | 2,961 | 3,280 |
| All rye | 88 | 70 | 32 | 19 | 120 | 89 |
| Flaxseed | 175 | 260 | 89 | 67 | 264 | 327 |
| Canola | 2,607 | 3,899 | 1,302 | 1,303 | 3,909 | 5,202 |
| Corn | 4,880 | 4,020 | 1,822 | 1,749 | 6,702 | 5,769 |
| Soybeans | 753 | 915 | 568 | 858 | 1,321 | 1,773 |
| Dry peas | 578 | 870 | 294 | 215 | 872 | 1,085 |
| Mustard | 75 | 125 | 25 | 16 | 100 | 141 |
| Sunflower | 55 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 63 | 14 |
| Lentils | 750 | 1,080 | 157 | 74 | 907 | 1,154 |
| Canary seed | 35 | 52 | 21 | 10 | 56 | 62 |
| Chick peas | 100 | 39 | 11 | 8 | 111 | 47 |
