Glacier Farmmedia – Canadian lentil stocks are forecast to be extremely tight by the close of the 2023/24 marketing year, which should keep prices well supported despite expectations for a smaller export program.
Updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada pegged lentil carryout for the current crop year at only 50,000 tonnes, which would be a third of the previous year’s ending stocks and down from the already-tight November forecast of 100,000 tonnes. If realized, that would mark the tightest lentil stocks since July 2010, with a stocks-to-use ratio of only three per cent.
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The tighter stocks forecast came despite an upward revision to production from Statistics Canada, with the government agency recently raising its call on 2023/24 lentil production to 1.671 million tonnes from 1.542 million tonnes. That would still be down from the 2.301 million tonnes grown the previous year.
Lentil exports are forecast at 1.600 million tonnes, which would be up by 200,000 tonnes from the November forecast but down by 27 per cent on the year.
Large green lentil bids currently top out at 73 cents per pound in Western Canada, with new crop contracts already available as high as 51 cents per pound, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. Red lentils are currently priced around 35 to 40 cents per pound, with new crop pricing around 30 cents per pound.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
