MarketsFarm — Canadian farmers grew less canola and durum than originally thought in 2022, but more barley and oats, according to updated production estimates from Statistics Canada released Friday.
“There were both bullish and bearish surprises,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said.
While canola production of 18.174 million tonnes was still up considerably from the drought-stricken 13.757 million-tonne crop of 2021, the official reading was well off the 19.098 million tonnes forecast in September and below the low end of trade estimates.
The December report was StatCan’s first of the year to rely on farmer surveys, whereas earlier estimates were based off models and satellite imagery.
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StatCan on Friday pegged all-wheat production at 33.824 million tonnes, down by about 900,000 tonnes from the September estimate, but still up from 22.296 million tonnes the previous year. Of that total, durum at 5.443 million tonnes was well off the previous estimate of 6.117 million tonnes.
“If there was an expectation amongst world buyers of durum that there was going to be a plentiful supply of Canadian durum this year, think again,” said Jubinville.
While canola and durum were both revised lower, barley and oats production came in at the higher end of trade expectations at 9.987 million and 5.226 million tonnes respectively.
The larger barley crop will especially weigh on feed barley prices, especially with corn shipments already coming up from the U.S. to Canadian feedlots, according to Jubinville.
In addition, more oats will likely be forced to move into feed channels as the domestic milling capacity is only so large.
Table: Summary of December survey-based principal field crop production estimates for 2022-23, in millions of metric tonnes, with previous estimates and year-ago numbers included for comparison. Source: Statistics Canada.
| December, . | September, . | 2021-22, . | Trade | |
| 2022-23 | 2022-23 | final | estimates | |
| Durum | 5.443 | 6.117 | 3.038 | 5.600 – 6.500 |
| All wheat | 33.824 | 34.703 | 22.296 | 33.800 – 35.500 |
| Oats | 5.226 | 4.654 | 2.808 | 4.500 – 5.300 |
| Barley | 9.987 | 9.428 | 6.959 | 9.425 – 10.100 |
| Corn (grain) . | 14.539 | 14.861 | 13.984 | n/a |
| Canola | 18.174 | 19.098 | 13.757 | 18.600 – 19.700 |
| Soybeans | 6.543 | 6.505 | 6.272 | n/a |
| Flaxseed | 0.473 | 0.465 | 0.346 | 0.475 – 0.500 |
| Peas | 3.423 | 3.586 | 2.258 | n/a |
| Lentils | 2.301 | 2.777 | 1.606 | 2.500 – 2.800 |
