MarketsFarm — After growing record-large wheat and canola crops in 2022-23, Australia is expected to see a significant drop in production in 2023-24 as developing El Nino weather patterns will likely cut rainfall through the growing season, according to the latest crop report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Total seeded wheat area in the country is only forecast to be down by two per cent on the year, at 12.8 million hectares. However, production is forecast to drop by 34 per cent to 26.2 million tonnes which would be slightly below the 10-year average.
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Canola seedings are forecast to be down by 11 per cent on the year but would still mark the second-largest Australian canola acreage base on record at 3.5 million hectares. Production of the oilseed is forecast to drop by 41 per cent on the year but would still be above the 10-year average at 4.9 million tonnes.
While wheat and canola seedings will be down on the year, some of that lost area will go into barley, “largely because of the crop’s ability to withstand drier conditions compared to wheat and canola.” Area planted to barley is forecast to increase by four per cent to 4.3 million hectares.
However, barley production is also forecast to be down by 30 per cent on the year due to the expected dryness, at 9.9 million tonnes.
In addition to the dryness concerns, increased mouse activity in many cropping regions has resulted in growers undertaking more baiting this season, according to the report. “The delayed and difficult harvest of the record 2022-23 winter crop led to greater grain loss than usual,” said ABARES, adding “dry summer conditions meant that grain left on the ground did not germinate, increasing food availability for mice. These conditions have been favourable for breeding, resulting in a resurgence of mice.”
On-farm pest management limited damage to winter crop plantings and development in affected regions so far, with national production not expected to be significantly affected by the mouse activity at this point.
