MarketsFarm — The United States may be in the midst of growing record-breaking corn and soybean crops if the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is correct.
USDA on Friday released its monthly world agricultural supply/demand estimates (WASDE), which included its first U.S. production estimates for 2023-24. The report also provided ending stocks projections for new crop, as well as updated figures for old crop.
Corn is projected for a record-large crop of 15.265 billion bushels for 2023-24, near the higher end of trade expectations and an increase of 1.935 billion from the previous year. U.S. farmers are expected to plant 92 million acres with a yield of 181.5 bushels per acre, another potential record.
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Due to the large crop, U.S. ending stocks were estimated to be 2.222 billion bushels, 805 million more than 2022-23’s total. Meanwhile, global ending stocks are expected to increase by 15.49 million tonnes to 312.9 million in 2023-24. There was also a 69.43 million-tonne year-by-year increase in global corn production to 1.22 billion.
U.S. soybean production for 2023-24 was projected at a record-setting 4.51 billion bushels, matching the highest trade estimate. The figure represents a 234-million bushel rise in production from 2022-23. While the projected soybean area was unchanged from the previous year at 87.5 million acres, the yield grew by 2.5 bu./ac., to 52.
Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans rose by 120 million bushels to 335 million for 2023-24. Worldwide combined ending soybean stocks jumped by 22.46 million tonnes to 122.5 million, thanks to a 40.17 million-tonne increase in production to 410.59 million. Brazilian soybean production was estimated at 155 million tonnes for 2022-23 and 163 million tonnes for 2023-24, both potential records.
Unlike corn and soybeans, U.S. wheat production stayed mostly unchanged with a relatively small nine-million bushel increase in production to 1.659 billion for 2023-24. The number of wheat acres is expected to grow by 4.2 million, to 49.9 million, but the yield is set to decrease by 1.8 bu./ac., to 44.7.
The U.S. is set to produce 1.13 billion bushels of winter wheat for 2023-24, 26.7 million more than the year before. Hard red winter wheat production was projected at 514.3 million bushels (down 16.6 million from 2022-23), while soft red winter wheat production was estimated at 405.8 million (up 69.2 million). Soft white winter wheat is expected to total 200.2 million bushels (down 25.5 million), while 10.2 million bushels of hard white winter wheat will be grown (down 462,000).
The projected 2023-24 ending stocks for U.S. wheat are 556 million bushels, a decrease of 42 million from one year earlier. World ending stocks for wheat are expected to be 264.34 million tonnes for the upcoming marketing year, only down 1.94 million from 2022-23. The world is projected to produce 1.5 million more tonnes of wheat in 2023-24 than the year before at 789.76 million. Canada is anticipated to produce 37 million tonnes in 2023-24, up from 33.82 million in 2022-23.
— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
