MarketsFarm — Chickpeas are expected to be in short supply around the world over the next six months, according to a release from the Global Pulse Confederation (GPC).
Hot and dry weather in India cut production prospects for that country’s kabuli chickpea crop, according to the report. Production out of Mexico also failed to meet expectations.
As a result, the world kabuli market is out roughly 100,000 tonnes of product, according to Navneet Chhabra of Global Garbonzo, who was quoted in the release. The tighter Indian balance sheet should cause world prices to rise, according to Chhabra, who expected the supply tightness to last for five to seven months – when new-crop North American supplies will once again be available.
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With India at a deficit, the major chickpea customer will need to increase its import volumes and all eyes will be on Russia, Canada, the U.S. and Turkey to make up supplies.
“Even if all these origins increase the planted area by 30 per cent. I still foresee a shortage for the next six months, especially of the large caliber sizes,” said Chhabra.
Canada has exported 113,800 tonnes of chickpeas through the first half of the 2022-23 marketing year, according to Statistics Canada data, with the U.S., Turkey and Pakistan the largest customers and India only taking 188 tonnes so far. The total exports were roughly double what moved by the same time the previous year. Canadian chickpea sales in 2022-23 are forecast to hit 200,000 tonnes by the end of the crop year, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).
Early indications for 2023-24 from AAFC see planted chickpea area in Canada rising by 10 per cent, to 260,000 acres. The official survey-based estimates from Statistics Canada will be released on April 26.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Prospective Plantings report, released March 31, has pegged U.S. chickpea seedings in 2023 at 340,500 tonnes. That would be down by 3.5 per cent from the previous year.
Large-calibre kabuli chickpeas are currently trading at around 50 cents/lb. in Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, with new-crop bids around 43-45 cents. Spot bids for desi chickpeas were in the 30-35 cents/lb. area.
Looking beyond North American production, the GPC said it is unclear how the war in Ukraine and the ongoing transport issues out of the Black Sea will continue to affect global chickpea supplies.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
