MarketsFarm — Projected cuts to soybean production and yields in the United States exceeded many analysts’ expectations, but the monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates for corn were mostly in line with pre-report expectations.
USDA released its monthly world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Monday, which showed downward revisions for average yield and production estimates in both corn and soybeans. However, the changes went further than expected.
Corn ending stocks for 2022-23 are estimated to be 1.219 billion bushels, down 169 million bushels from the August estimates, according to USDA. The reduction is close to analysts’ projection of 171 million. Beginning stocks are projected to be 1.525 billion bushels, only five million less than the August estimate, while the corn production estimate was cut 615 million bushels to 13.944 billion, compared to the 271 million reduction expected by analysts. Feed and residual use, as well as exports, were both down 100 million bushels from the August estimates to 5.225 billion and 2.275 billion bushels, respectively. The average yield was reduced by 2.9 bushels per acre, correctly predicted by analysts, to 172.5.
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Worldwide 2022-23 ending stocks for corn are estimated at 306.68 million tonnes, down 2.15 million from the August projections. Beginning stocks increased by 300,000 tonnes to 312.14 million, but production was cut by 7.03 million tonnes to 1.18 billion.
The estimated U.S. ending stocks for soybeans were cut by 45 million bushels from the August estimates to 200 million, according to USDA, while analysts previously predicted a two million-bushel rise. Beginning stocks are up 15 million from August to 240 million, while the production estimate is down 153 million bushels to 4.378 billion. Analysts had anticipated a cut of 35 million bushels of crop production. Crushing projections were reduced 20 million to 2.225 billion, while exports were down 70 million to 2.085 billion. The estimated average yield for U.S. soybeans was cut by 1.4 bu./ac. to 50.5, a greater reduction than the 0.4 bu./ac. predicted by analysts.
Worldwide ending stocks for soybeans was downwardly revised by 2.49 million tonnes to 98.92 million. Beginning stocks were only cut by 30,000 tonnes to 89.7 million, but production was reduced 3.02 million tonnes to 389.77 million. The projected total for exports dropped 1.2 million tonnes to 167.88 million.
U.S. wheat estimates were unchanged by USDA, but the projection for worldwide wheat ending stocks increased by 1.23 million tonnes to 268.57 million. While beginning stocks were down 680,000 tonnes to 275.67 million, production projections increased by 4.32 million to 783.92 million tonnes. Wheat ending stocks for Australia, Canada, Russia and Ukraine all increased, while the European Union’s decreased and Argentina’s were left unchanged.
— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
