For this forecast period we start, once again, with no strong systems impacting the Prairies. But, as we head into the weekend a strong area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over the western U.S. This low will impact our region over the weekend, but how and where is a little uncertain.
We start with a weak area of low pressure over central Alberta and a front that stretches from this low southeastward into central Manitoba. This front low and frontal system will be the focus of some showers and thunderstorms later in the day on Wednesday as it slowly slumps to the south. It looks like things will quiet down on Thursday and Friday. Most regions should see a mix of sun and clouds and average summer temperatures.
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Prairie forecast: Potential to turn cool and wet
For this forecast period we are starting off with a large area of high pressure over Ontario and an equally large area of low pressure over the Yukon. The clockwise flow around the Ontario high, combined with the counterclockwise flow around the Yukon low, is creating a widespread southerly flow across the Prairies. This should lead to one more day of warm temperatures across the western Prairies and a couple more days over the eastern half.
Over the weekend, the weather models are showing a strong area of low pressure forming over the western U.S. This low looks like it will behave more like a summer low as it spins up, wobbles around and sends pieces of energy northwards.
The main energy from this low looks to lift into southern and central Alberta on Saturday thanks to trough of low-pressure stretching northwestwards from the U.S. low. Expect plenty of clouds on both Saturday and Sunday with a good chance of rain. There’s potential for some heavy amounts, especially over southern and western regions.
This energy is then expected to push east to northeast on Sunday and Monday. This should bring a good chance of rain in the form of showers and thundershowers to Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Exactly how this will play out is a little uncertain.
Once this low pushes off to the east, cooler air is forecast to drop southwards. Western regions should see the coolest temperatures to start the last week of June. With cooler air in place, especially aloft, expect sunny starts to the day with afternoon clouds along with a good chance of localized showers and thunderstorms.
Alberta
A weak area of low pressure will bring a mix of sun and clouds to central and northern regions today along with the chance of afternoon showers or thundershowers. These showers and thundershowers may persist over central regions on Thursday as the low slowly moves off and weakens. Southern regions can expect to see sunny skies and average summer temperatures with daytime highs forecasted to be in the low twenties.
Over the weekend, an area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over the western U.S. An upper trough of low pressure is expected to develop to the northwest of this low, which will allow for plenty of moisture to work its way into southern and central regions.
Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a good chance of rain on both Saturday and Sunday before the trough moves off to the east as the main low finally pushes eastwards. All the clouds and rain will make for cool temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the low teens.
By Monday, the precipitation and associated clouds will have moved off to the east. This will allow for clearing skies as cool air slides in from the north. Under the strong summer sun, daytime highs should warm into the low twenties. But with cold air aloft, expect afternoon clouds to develop along with widely scattered showers and thundershowers. These conditions look to continue into Tuesday before warmer air begins to build in around mid-week.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
This forecast period will start with a weak front draped across the region. This frontal boundary will be the focus of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of development is expected to be across Manitoba.
Thursday and Friday look to be nice with sunny to partly cloudy skies and only a small chance of some widely scattered afternoon and early evening thundershowers. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to mid twenties with overnight lows falling into the low teens.
Over the weekend, a strong area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over the western U.S. Exactly how this low will behave is a little uncertain, so confidence in this part of the forecast is low. Currently it looks like a warm front will lift northwards ahead of the low on Saturday. This would bring the first chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chances of significant rainfall is forecasted to be over western Saskatchewan.
The main area of low pressure is forecasted to eject eastwards on Sunday and Monday. It looks like most of the energy from this low will stay south of the border, but there is a chance of some showers and thundershowers impacting southern Manitoba on Monday.
Once this system moves out, cooler air—especially aloft—is forecasted to drop southwards. This will bring sunny skies to start with afternoon clouds and some isolated showers and thundershowers. Expect daytime highs to be in the low twenties with overnight lows falling to around 10 C. Looking further ahead to the following weekend, the weather models are showing warmer air moving back in.
