It looks like this will be a good news, bad news forecast. For those of you hoping for rain, it may be good news. For those wanting things to dry out enough to get out working, it’s a bit of bad news. The one thing, which is typical for spring forecasts, is that there’s a fair bit of uncertainty.
Here’s the big picture. We start off with a departing area of cool, high pressure over the eastern Prairies, a building ridge over the western Prairies, and a trough of low pressure digging southwards along the West Coast.
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The western ridge will push eastwards over the next couple of days and bring some very nice temperatures to most regions. The West Coast trough will also work its way eastward and spawn two areas of low pressure: one over the central-northern Prairies and one over the central U.S.
The northern Prairie low will likely bring a few showers to central and northern Alberta and north-central Saskatchewan, but not a lot of precipitation is expected. The southern low may or may not impact southern Manitoba late in the week as it ejects northeastwards—more on this in the provincial forecasts.
This pattern then looks to repeat itself early next week as a weak upper ridge rebuilds over the Prairies and another trough digs along the West Coast. This trough looks to spawn another area of low pressure over central Alberta early next week, that is forecasted to move quickly eastwards.
If we look a little further ahead to late next week, the models are showing a large area of low pressure developing over the central U.S. which is tied to the West Coast trough. This low has the potential to bring widespread rains to a large part of the Prairies over the first weekend in May but as usual, that is a long way off and a lot can change between now and then.
Alberta
Most regions should enjoy sunshine and warm temperatures as a weak ridge of high pressure builds ahead of a West Coast trough. Expect daytime highs to be the upper teens to low twenties across southern and central regions with mid-teens in the north. An area of low pressure is forecasted to form over north-central region on Thursday, bringing clouds with the occasional shower to northern and central regions. This low should move off east on Friday ushering cooler temperatures as the counterclockwise flow around the low pulls cooler air in from the north.
Over the weekend, the flow around an area of low pressure and associated trough off the West Coast will begin to push milder air back into Alberta with daytime highs forecasted to be in the upper teens for most regions. As the West Coast low pushes eastwards, a lee-side low is forecasted to develop over central Alberta on Monday. It is forecasted to bring widespread clouds and showers through to Wednesday. Southern and central regions have the best chance of showers. Due to the clouds and showers, temperatures will be on the cool side, with daytime highs forecasted to be around 12 C mark.
Saskatchewan
This forecast period will start off with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures as the western ridge drifts eastwards. Expect daytime highs in the upper teens to low twenties with overnight lows falling into the 5 to 8 C range. On Friday, an area of low pressure moving northeastwards out of the central U.S. will bring the possibility of clouds and some showers to southeastern regions. At this point, the models have been trending towards a more eastern track with this system, so there’s a chance that any precipitation from this low will stay to the east.
Slightly cooler air will try to work southwards behind the departing eastern low, but a building ridge to the west will prevent temperatures from dropping too much. Expect daytime high temperatures over the weekend to be in the 13 to 16 C range with overnight lows around the zero-degree mark. As the western ridge pushes eastwards early next week daytime highs should moderate back into the upper teens to low twenties.
Late Monday and into Tuesday, the Alberta low will push eastwards and weaken. Expect cloudy to partly cloudy skies on Monday and Tuesday. There’s the chance of showers, but not much precipitation is expected at this time. With the increase in clouds, expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler.
Manitoba
As the western ridge of high-pressure slides eastwards, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Most regions should see highs in the upper teens to low twenties on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday an area of low pressure will be building over the central U.S. and will be lifting to the northeast. Current model runs are showing clouds and showers moving into southern regions early on Friday, bringing around 5 mm of rain.
The latest model runs have been shifting any significant rain to the east of the province, but the southeastern corner could see upward of 10 to 15 mm of rain late Friday and into early Saturday. The system should pull out of the province by mid-day Saturday with clearing skies but cool temperatures. Depending on when it clears, expect daytime highs to be in the 10 to 15 C range.
Temperatures will slowly moderate early next week as a weak upper ridge pushes eastwards ahead of an area of low pressure. This area of low pressure will bring a mix of sun and clouds on Monday and Tuesday as it slowly weakens and moves into Ontario. Currently, it doesn’t look like this system will bring much in the way of precipitation, but some regions may see 5 to 10 mm of rain as there is some indication of some stalling of rain showers.
Looking further ahead, the weather models are showing a strong area of low pressure lifting out of the central U.S. late next week, which should bring widespread rain to the region. That’s something to keep an eye on but a lot can change between now and then.
